Bull Run Timing vs TAO Halving
Bitcoin halving: April 2024 → usually triggers a bull market 12–18 months later.
That means the peak of the BTC-led bull run could happen around late 2025 to mid-2026.
TAO halving: Dec 2025 → perfectly overlaps with altcoin season + BTC momentum.
✅ This alignment gives TAO extra fuel: scarcity + hype + overall bull cycle liquidity.
2. Effect of TAO Halving on Rewards & Hashrate
Before halving: ~7,200 TAO/day issued.
After halving: ~3,600 TAO/day issued.
That’s a 50% cut in miner/validator rewards.
Hashrate Effect:
In Bittensor, “hashrate” = computational power miners provide for AI training.
When rewards drop, low-efficiency miners may shut down, reducing hashrate.
Only the most efficient miners survive, making the network leaner but stronger.
3. Market Impact of Reward Cut
Less TAO is sold daily → sell pressure is halved.
If demand is stable or increasing, scarcity pushes price up.
In crypto history (BTC, LTC), halvings usually start a supply shock rally 3–6 months after the event.
4. Possible Scenario for TAO
Q3–Q4 2025: BTC bull run heats up → TAO rallies with market.
Dec 2025: TAO halving → supply shock, miners sell less, narrative pumps.
2026: Post-halving AI adoption + bull market peak → potential parabolic move for TAO
Bitcoin halving: April 2024 → usually triggers a bull market 12–18 months later.
That means the peak of the BTC-led bull run could happen around late 2025 to mid-2026.
TAO halving: Dec 2025 → perfectly overlaps with altcoin season + BTC momentum.
✅ This alignment gives TAO extra fuel: scarcity + hype + overall bull cycle liquidity.
2. Effect of TAO Halving on Rewards & Hashrate
Before halving: ~7,200 TAO/day issued.
After halving: ~3,600 TAO/day issued.
That’s a 50% cut in miner/validator rewards.
Hashrate Effect:
In Bittensor, “hashrate” = computational power miners provide for AI training.
When rewards drop, low-efficiency miners may shut down, reducing hashrate.
Only the most efficient miners survive, making the network leaner but stronger.
3. Market Impact of Reward Cut
Less TAO is sold daily → sell pressure is halved.
If demand is stable or increasing, scarcity pushes price up.
In crypto history (BTC, LTC), halvings usually start a supply shock rally 3–6 months after the event.
4. Possible Scenario for TAO
Q3–Q4 2025: BTC bull run heats up → TAO rallies with market.
Dec 2025: TAO halving → supply shock, miners sell less, narrative pumps.
2026: Post-halving AI adoption + bull market peak → potential parabolic move for TAO
