According to CryptoPotato, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in the first phase of its halving cycle, aligning with analysts' predictions. Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital has stated that the recent 18% retrace in Bitcoin's value was anticipated, as similar declines were observed prior to the second and third halvings. This suggests that Bitcoin may follow patterns seen in previous halving events, including a post-halving surge that could drive the asset to new peaks.
The three stages of the Bitcoin halving include the final pre-halving retrace, the re-accumulation, and the parabolic uptrend. The initial stage typically takes place 28 to 14 days before the event and can last for several weeks. The second phase begins after the retrace has bottomed out and can continue for up to five months, while the third phase can extend for over a year.
During the 2016 halving, the retrace was 38% and lasted four days. In 2020, it was 20% and lasted eight weeks. Currently, with Bitcoin approximately 13 days away from the halving, the asset has seen a roughly 18% decline over the past three weeks. Rekt Capital noted that this cycle has shown characteristics from both the 2016 and 2020 halvings, suggesting that it may replicate parts of their pre-halving price behaviors.
On-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin may be entering the re-accumulation phase. With the asset's resistance level at $70,000, Rekt Capital suggests that the market may have set the high re-accumulation range. As re-accumulation follows the bottoming out of the retrace, it is also possible that the pre-halving bottom has been reached. According to Rekt Capital, the goal now is for Bitcoin to move sideways until the halving and beyond. This is the first time the re-accumulation range is forming around the new all-time high area, which could potentially shorten the duration of this phase and cause the range to resemble the regular sideways movement observed in the market so far.