fed

$WLD
THE FED IS INDEED MOVING TOWARDS A RATE HIKE NOW

​Just moments ago, US PPI data was published, registering at 5.4% against an anticipated 5.3%.
​Concurrently, oil has broken above $100, which inevitably exacerbates inflationary pressure

​Conversely, the employment figures remain rather robust, leaving the Fed with precisely one course of action

​Raise rates and curb this inflation

​Should the Fed delay any further, they will be forced into aggressive hikes reminiscent of 2022, which would utterly decimate the markets

$ETH
$BTC
#Fed #USGovernment #Market_Update

ÚLTIMAS NOTÍCIAS:

🇺🇸As chances de o Federal Reserve aumentar as taxas de juros na próxima semana disparam para 64% após o Índice de Preços ao Produtor (IPP) ter ficado acima do esperado.

$VTHO $ETHFI $GPRO 👀👀👀👀


#NewsAboutCrypto #Fed #USAugustPPIRisesLessThanExpected #SECApprovesNasdaqTexasCommodityTrustRule #bullish

$WLD
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave a proper hawkish Jackson Hole speech, sayin’ financial conditions are "hard pressed" to be called restrictive, innit?

That sent September rate hike odds jumpin' from 35% to 57.5% almost instantly, and yields spiked right back up again

​Today, the Treasury tripled its buyback to $6 billion. Yields are now back above where they were before the first intervention, simple as

​Japan’s already livin’ through this, mate, Its 2-year and 5-year yields just hit 31-year highs, and its 10-year and 20-year yields are at their highest since 1995, even though the government keeps stepped in time and again to try and control both its currency and bond market

​Over in the US, the real pressure under the hood is heavy Treasury issuance, inflation that just won't cool off, and a Fed chair who keeps dropped hints about more hikes

​Nothin' of that's changed. The buybacks are only gettin’ bigger: double, then "at least double," then triple—and yields just keep on climbin' regardless

$ETH
$BTC
#KevinWarshDisclosedCryptoInvestments #Fed #USGovernment

Sau khi Mỹ công bố dữ liệu PPI mới nhất, thị trường tài chính toàn cầu đã ngay lập tức phản ứng tiêu cực trước áp lực lạm phát còn dai dẳng. Hợp đồng tương lai lãi suất ngắn hạn của Mỹ sụt giảm, kéo theo làn sóng định giá lại chính sách tiền tệ khi giới giao dịch gần như cược tuyệt đối vào khả năng Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed) sẽ tăng lãi suất vào tháng 10, trong khi Ngân hàng Trung ương Anh (BoE) cũng được dự báo sẽ có tới 4 đợt tăng lãi suất.

Diễn biến này cho thấy bóng ma lạm phát sản xuất đang quay trở lại đe dọa kỳ vọng nới lỏng chính sách tiền tệ. Áp lực càng gia tăng khi giá dầu Brent vượt mốc 105 USD/thùng, làm dấy lên lo ngại về vòng xoáy chi phí đẩy mới trên quy mô toàn cầu.

Tâm lý né tránh rủi ro nhanh chóng bao phủ toàn bộ thị trường tài chính. Hợp đồng tương lai chỉ số Nasdaq giảm 1% và S&P 500 giảm 0,3%. Đáng chú ý, nhóm kim loại quý chịu áp lực bán tháo nặng nề khi vàng giảm 1,4% xuống dưới 4.340 USD/ounce và bạc lao dốc tới 4% về mức 64,55 USD/ounce do kỳ vọng lãi suất neo cao.

Đối với thị trường tiền điện tử, bối cảnh vĩ mô thắt chặt và thanh khoản USD có nguy cơ bị rút bớt sẽ tạo ra rào cản ngắn hạn cho đà phục hồi của $BTC . Nhà đầu tư crypto cần theo dõi sát sao cuộc họp báo chính sách của Chủ tịch ECB Christine Lagarde và các phản ứng tiếp theo từ lợi suất trái phiếu để quản trị rủi ro dòng vốn hiệu quả.

#fed #lam_phat #tai_chinh

La probabilidad de una subida de tasas cambió esta mañana.

Los traders elevaron al 70% la posibilidad de un incremento en la reunión de la Fed de la próxima semana.

Es un salto importante en las expectativas del mercado.

Este tipo de movimientos suele generar ruido en activos como $BTC por la sensibilidad a la liquidez.

¿Qué te llamó más la atención de este dato?

#Fed #Cripto #BTC

#usadpweeklyemploymentrises12000
​Mais vagas de emprego nos EUA = mais pressão sobre o Fed. 🇺🇸📮

​Os dados mais recentes da ADP acabaram de ser divulgados, mostrando que os empregadores privados agora estão adicionando cerca de 12 mil empregos por semana (um salto sólido em relação aos 10 mil). Um mercado de trabalho forte é uma ótima notícia para a economia do dia a dia, mas cria uma grande curva para os mercados.

​Por que isso importa para a sua carteira:
​Se o mercado de trabalho continuar tão resiliente, o Fed terá muito pouca motivação para apressar aquelas quedas nas taxas de juros que estamos esperando. É provável que estejamos diante de um cenário de taxas “mais altas por mais tempo”, que tradicionalmente funciona como gravidade sobre os ativos de risco.

​Para a Comunidade Crypto:
​Agora é um pacote misto. A força mais ampla da economia é, fundamentalmente, uma coisa boa, mas políticas monetárias apertadas geralmente são negativas para as criptos. Mantenha os olhos fixos no BTC e nas suas altcoins favoritas nos próximos dias — as coisas podem ficar turbulentas!
​
#ADP #Fed #CryptoNews
$BTC $RAYSOL $CROSS

My Honest Take on CPI & Fed Rate - As a Beginner #CPIWatch

Nonfarm Payrolls data just beat expectations again with 206k new jobs vs 180k expected. At first I thought this means Fed will definitely hike rates again to control the economy.

But after reading a few articles, I think Fed will still HOLD the rate this time. Why? Because wage growth is slowing and last CPI was already cooling down. One strong jobs report is not enough for another hike. Fed will wait for tomorrow's CPI report to decide.

I am not trading live yet, I am just learning. I am personally observing $PAXG (Gold). In my view, if CPI comes hotter than 3.2%, Gold will be bullish for short term and stocks will dump. If CPI is cool, market will pump.

I am attaching my Binance watchlist screenshot as my proof of tracking via price widget. I am tracking PAXG, BTC and ETH for this event.

What do you think - will Fed hike or hold after CPI?
#CPIWatch #PAXG #Fed

$XAUT
$BNB

Druckenmiller曾是美国财政部长贝森特和美联储主席沃什的长期导师，曾效力于索罗斯，参与了狙击英镑的历史性战役。其家族办公室杜肯资本（Duquesne Capital）积累了巨额财富。沃什在出任美联储主席之前，曾是杜肯资本的合伙人。

Druckenmiller于周四上午在Piper Sandler于纽约举办的闭门会议上表示，降息"已不再必要"，并直言："美联储委员们一再声称联邦基金利率具有限制性，这简直荒谬。"

与此同时，Druckenmiller还警告称AI行业存在"盈利泡沫"风险，并透露其在AI领域的仓位已较六个月前削减至原来的20%。

周四，30年期美国国债收益率上涨7个基点至5.36%，创下自2007年以来的最高水平；同时，10年期国债收益率正逼近5%大关。随着市场逐步消化美联储将在下周加息的预期，短期国债收益率也同步走高。

尽管Druckenmiller坦言AI投资给Duquesne带来了丰厚回报——其近期大部分利润均来自AI押注而非货币或债券等传统宏观策略——但他已明显转向审慎。他透露，Duquesne在AI领域的持仓已削减至六个月前的20%。

"这一切AI浪潮给我们带来了难以置信的旅程，"他说，"但我认为，建设周期已经足够晚期，人们需要开始有所警惕。"

在汇率方面，Druckenmiller表示，自年初以来持续做空欧元和英镑，但强调当前仓位远小于其历史水平——他在历史上曾建立相当于自身净资产两倍的汇率押注。

他表示不敢做空美元，理由是美国在AI领域拥有巨大的全球优势，而欧洲在这一赛道上"根本不在场"。

$BTC

#btc #fed #trading #fomc #美债

As an investor, you have to ask yourself:

President Trump effectively made rate CUTS a pre-condition for his next Fed Chair.

Will Fed Chair Warsh actually raise interest rates in his first rate move since being appointed Fed Chair by President Trump?

We think markets are overestimating the chance of a September hike.
$BTC #Fed #cryptouniverseofficial

#usaugustppiriseslessthanexpected 🚨 وصل مؤشر أسعار المنتجين الأمريكي (PPI) بوتيرة أهدأ — هل هذا إيجابي للعملات المشفرة؟ 🚀
ارتفع مؤشر أسعار المنتجين الأمريكي +0.4% على أساس شهري (MoM)، بما يتماشى مع التوقعات، بينما جاء مؤشر PPI الأساسي عند +0.2% مقابل +0.3% المتوقعة — إشارة إلى أن التضخم الكامن قد يكون في طريقه للتراجع. 📉
ماذا قد يعني ذلك بالنسبة للسوق؟
• تضخم الجملة أهدأ من المتوقع
• الأسواق تترقب مزيدًا من إشارات أكثر ميلاً للتيسير من الاحتياطي الفيدرالي
• انخفاض التضخم قد يدعم توقعات سياسة أسهل
• تاريخيًا، قد تمنح بيانات التضخم الأهدأ دفعة لـ BTC وللعملات المشفرة 🚀
• المحطة التالية الأهم هي اجتماع الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في 15–16 سبتمبر
لذا فإن السؤال الكبير هو:
هل يمكن أن تكون هذه الشرارة محفزًا لاندفاعة قوية للعملات المشفرة في الربع الرابع؟ 👀
كما هو الحال دائمًا، ستظل إرشادات الاحتياطي الفيدرالي وبيانات التضخم القادمة هي العاملين الحاسمين.

متابعة من فضلكم

#PPI #Fed #CryptoNews #BTC
$BTC

🚨 Bitcoin just got another reason to be cautious.

$BTC is now around $77.2K — and today's move isn't happening in isolation.

The U.S. just released August PPI data:

📈 PPI: +5.4% YoY
📈 Previous month: +4.8%
🛢️ Brent crude: around $105
🏦 Fed hike odds: now around 70%

That's a pretty uncomfortable combination for risk assets.

Why?

Higher oil → more inflation pressure
Higher inflation → less room for rate cuts
Higher yields → more pressure on speculative assets

And Bitcoin is feeling it.

But here's the important part:

Tomorrow's CPI is now even more important.

If CPI confirms that inflation is heating up, BTC could remain under pressure.

If CPI comes in softer than expected, we could see a sharp relief move because so much Fed-hike fear is already being priced in.

So I'm watching $77K closely.

Not because it's a magic number — but because the market is about to tell us whether this is simply a pullback or the start of something deeper.

Tomorrow's CPI could be the real test.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Binance #Crypto #Fed

🚨 BREAKING: FED HOLDS RATES STEADY — CRYPTO MARKET ON HIGH ALERT! 🇺🇸📊

#FED : ⚡ The FOMC keeps the federal funds target rate at 3.50%–3.75%.

📉 The Fed remains cautious and data-dependent, weighing sticky core inflation against broader economic signals.

👀 Rate cuts or another hike next?
Markets now turn their attention to upcoming Fed meetings for the next major crypto catalyst.
Follow for daily updates 🚨

$VTHO $ETHFI $GPRO

根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的最新监测数据，市场对美联储9月利率决议的预期出现了明显变化：目前押注维持利率不变的概率为28.8%，而预期加息25个基点的概率已攀升至71.3%。放眼到10月，维持现有利率的概率进一步降至17.6%，加息25个基点的概率为54.8%，甚至还有27.6%的概率预期会加息50个基点。

这组数据直接反映了当前市场情绪的重新定价。在此之前，不少投资者原本预期紧缩周期可能接近尾声，但最新的利率掉期定价显示，宏观层面的通胀粘性或强劲数据可能依然在支撑美联储维持偏鹰派的立场，降息预期的后延甚至再次加息的可能正被重新放回台面。

从传统金融市场来看，加息预期的上升通常会推高美债收益率并支撑美元指数走强，短期内容易对美股及大宗商品带来一定估值压力。借贷成本的预期上升，让整个宏观流动性环境在接下来的两个月里依然偏向谨慎。

对于加密市场来说，$BTC 以及各类山寨币的走势很大程度上仍与整体流动性预期挂钩。当加息预期占据上风时，场外增量资金进场的节奏可能会有所放缓，市场更多呈现存量博弈和震荡观望的特征。接下来仍需紧盯后续的通胀及就业数据，看看预期是否会再次发生反转。

#fed #利率 #加密市场

根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）美联储观察工具的最新数据显示，市场对美联储9月加息25个基点的预期概率已大幅攀升至71.3%，而维持利率不变的概率仅剩28.8%。延伸至10月会议，维持现有利率的概率进一步降至17.6%，累计加息25个基点与50个基点的概率分别达到了54.8%和27.6%。

这一数据变动清晰地反映出市场对通胀韧性与美联储紧缩周期的定价正在急剧重估。此前市场普遍预期的宽松拐点或政策暂停期可能被过度乐观计入，持续偏紧的货币政策路径再次成为基准假设，宏观资金成本在更长时间内维持高位的风险显著上升。

在传统金融市场端，紧缩预期的强化通常会直接推升美债收益率与美元指数，进而对全球流动性构成抽吸效应。无论是美股等风险资产还是贵金属市场，在实际利率维持高位且加息概率上升的背景下，都将面临估值端持续承压的被动局面。

对于加密市场而言，宏观流动性收紧向来是最直接的估值压制因素。在衍生品市场对加息预期显著升温的阶段，投机资金往往偏向防守，$BTC 与主流加密资产短期内恐难获得增量流动性支持，投资者需高度警惕宏观政策预期偏鹰带来的下行波动与去杠杆风险。

#fed #美联储 #利率决议

根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）美联储观察工具最新披露的数据，市场对美联储9月加息25个基点的预期概率已快速升至71.3%，而维持利率不变的概率降至28.8%。到了10月，按兵不动的概率进一步下探至17.6%，加息25个基点的概率达54.8%，加息50个基点的预期也有27.6%。利率路径的预期正在发生明显的短线定价重构。

从宏观博弈的角度来看，这一概率变化反映了短期通胀粘性或强劲经济数据正在倒逼交易员重新计价。但对于技术派交易者而言，这更像是一次预期的快速出清。当市场充分甚至过度对鹰派加息进行计价时，往往意味着宏观层面的利空预期正在被逐步消化，后续边际收紧的空间其实非常有限。

在传统金融市场上，美债收益率与美元指数在短期内可能因流动性收紧预期出现脉冲式反弹，但从动能指标来看，这一轮上冲极可能构成短周期的假突破。只要市场将最悲观的加息幅度计入价格，靴子落地后资产价格往往会迎来技术层面的均值回归与强劲反弹。

对于加密市场而言，$BTC 与主流资产目前在关键技术支撑位表现出相当强的韧性。当现货和衍生品市场提前吸收了加息预期后，筹码反而沉淀得更为扎实。一旦后续加息落地或宏观信号稍有缓和，风险资产将具备极佳的向上弹性，资金有望借势突破阻力区间展开新一轮上攻。

#Fed #利率决议 #宏观分析

According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool today, market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted sharply hawkish. The probability of a 25 bps interest rate hike at the September meeting has surged to 71.3%, leaving only a 28.8% chance of a pause. Looking ahead to the October meeting, the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged drops further to 17.6%, while markets price in a 54.8% probability of a 25 bps hike and a notable 27.6% chance of a 50 bps increase.

This aggressive repricing reflects mounting inflation stickiness and resilient economic data, completely upending earlier expectations of an impending easing cycle. Traders who were front-running monetary pivots are now forced to digest a prolonged "higher-for-longer" reality as the Fed tightens its grip.

Across traditional financial markets, rising rate expectations are driving upward pressure on US Treasury yields and strengthening the US Dollar Index (DXY). Equities and precious metals are facing headwind liquidity conditions as capital flows back into high-yielding cash equivalents and sovereign debt instruments.

For crypto markets, this macroeconomic shift creates short-term pressure on risk appetite and speculative liquidity. $BTC and broader digital assets may experience choppy, range-bound price action as institutional capital remains cautious in the face of persistent macro tightening.

#Fed #InterestRates #MacroEconomics

🇺🇸 توقعات مفاجئة لقرار الفائدة

أسواق التنبؤ ترفع احتمال رفع الفائدة الأمريكية 25 نقطة أساس في سبتمبر إلى 64%، مقابل 36% لاحتمال تثبيت الفائدة.

📊 الاحتمال ارتفع 10 نقاط مئوية خلال يوم واحد، مع تداولات تتجاوز 1.5 مليون دولار.

⚠️ إذا استمر هذا التسعير، فقد يشكل ضغطًا قصير الأجل على الأصول عالية المخاطر، ومنها الكريبتو.

✍🏻 Cipher Vault | نبض الكريبتو اليومي

#bitcoin #crypto #Fed #BTC走势分析

#USAugustPPIRisesLessThanExpected

Core PPI (ex-food & energy) rose 0.2% MoM in August, below the 0.3% forecast — signaling easing pipeline pressure. Headline PPI rose 0.4%, matching estimates, but annual PPI hit 5.4% (vs 5.3% expected), driven by surging energy costs — diesel alone jumped 24% for the month.

The mixed print lands days before the Fed's Sept 15-16 FOMC meeting. Softer core inflation supports a dovish case, but hot headline numbers (oil near $100/barrel) could keep the Fed cautious. Today's CPI release is the next key data point.

Cooling core inflation is typically a tailwind for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH if it boosts rate-cut odds — but sticky energy-driven headline inflation is a wildcard.

Rate cut in September, or does energy inflation force a hold?

#Fed #macroeconomic

TODAY’S CPI IS THE REAL MACRO BOSS FIGHT. 💀
🇺🇸 US CPI tháng 8
📅 11/09/2026
🕧 12:30 UTC | 19:30 UTC+7

Sau PPI hôm qua:
PPI YoY: 5.4% vs 5.3% forecast PPI m/m: 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast Tháng trước được điều chỉnh 4.7% → 4.8% YoY

Các dữ liệu đáng chú ý:
🇺🇸 NFIB: 98.7
→ Trên mức trung bình 52 năm 98.0.

🇺🇸 NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations: 3.6%
→ Không đổi.

🇺🇸 NFP tháng 8: +175K jobs.
🛢️ Brent >$100 → thêm áp lực lạm phát.

🇺🇸 CPI sẽ ảnh hưởng gì đến Fed 16/9?

CPI nóng hơn kỳ vọng → xác suất Fed tăng 25 bps có thể tiếp tục tăng → yields/USD ↑ → BTC & risk assets chịu áp lực.

CPI hạ nhiệt → giảm áp lực lên Fed → kỳ vọng hike giảm → risk assets có thêm room để hồi phục.

Hiện sau PPI, thị trường đã nâng xác suất Fed hike 25 bps ngày 16/9 lên khoảng 74%.

FOMC họp 15–16/9, với quyết định và họp báo vào ngày 16/9.

ONE CPI. ONE FED MEETING. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF BRAIN DAMAGE. 💀
Anh em nghiêng về CPI nóng hay hạ nhiệt?

#cpi #Fed #bitcoin #BrainrotCrypto
$BTC

#USAugustPPIRisesLessThanExpected 🚨 BREAKING: August wholesale inflation heats up to 5.4% YoY.

The market expected a cooldown, but Headline PPI just jumped 0.4% MoM—driven by a massive 4.2% spike in energy.

The silver lining? Core PPI (ex-food & energy) rose only 0.2%, coming in slightly softer than the 0.3% forecast.

📊 INFLATION REPORT VISUALIZATION

[ Headline PPI: 5.4% YoY ] ──────────────────────────► (High energy spike: +4.2%)
[ Core PPI: 0.2% MoM ] ───► (Slightly cooler)

Fed Target: 2.0%

The Hidden Insight : We are seeing a massive divergence. While core inflation is slowly cooling down, volatile energy costs are threatening to keep headline inflation sticky. This puts the Federal Reserve in an incredibly tight spot right before next week's policy meeting. Expect market volatility to pick up. 📊 Your Move: With CPI data dropping next, are you hedging your portfolio or buying the dip? Let's discuss below! 👇


#Inflation #PPI #StockMarket #Fed