fed

Recently, the upcoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has called for a new FED TREASURY ACCORD, basically a framework that would decide how the Fed and the U.S Treasury work together on debt, money printing, and interest rates.

This is not only about rate cuts.

Yes, markets expect Warsh to support rate cuts over time, possibly bringing rates down toward the 2.75%–3.0% range.

But the bigger story is what happens behind the scenes.

Warsh has long argued that the Fed’s massive balance sheet, built through years of bond buying pulls the central bank too deep into government financing.

So his plan could involve:

- The Fed holding more short term Treasury bills instead of long term bonds.

- A smaller overall balance sheet.

- Limits on when large bond buying programs can happen.

- Closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.

And this is where history matters. Because the U.S. has already done something very similar before. During World War II, government debt exploded from about $48 billion to over $260 billion in just six years. To manage borrowing costs, the Fed stepped in and controlled interest rates directly.

Short-term yields were fixed near 0.375% and Long-term yields were capped near 2.5%.

If yields tried to rise, the Fed printed money and bought bonds to push them back down. This policy is known as Yield Curve Control. It helped the government borrow cheaply during the war.

But it came with consequences.

Once wartime controls ended, inflation surged sharply. Real interest rates turned negative. And the Fed lost independence over monetary policy. By 1951, the system broke down and the famous Treasury Fed Accord ended yield caps.

Now fast forward to today.

U.S. debt levels are again near World War II levels relative to the economy. Interest payments alone are approaching $1 trillion per year. Even a small drop in long term yields would save the government tens of billions in financing costs. That fiscal pressure is why Warsh’s proposal is getting so much attention.

Other countries also tried something similar.

- Japan ran yield curve control from 2016 to 2024.

Its central bank ended up owning more than 50% of government bonds. Yields stayed low, but the yen weakened and bond market liquidity suffered.

- Australia tried a smaller version in 2020–2021.

When inflation surged, they were forced into a messy exit that hurt central bank credibility.

Across all these cases, the pattern was similar:

Borrowing costs stayed low. Liquidity stayed high. Currencies weakened. Exits were difficult.

If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto.

Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives. But bonds themselves could face volatility.

Less Fed support for long term yields combined with heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the yield curve and push term premiums higher and that's why this could become the most important structural shift in U.S. monetary policy since the 1940s yield curve control era.
#KevinWarsh #bullishleo #Fed

في خطوة تعكس تسارع دمج العملات الرقمية مع النظام المالي التقليدي، أعلنت Circle (الشركة المُصدِرة لعملة USDC) وBlockchain Payments Consortium دعمهما لمقترح الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي بشأن إنشاء حسابات دفع رقمية محدودة مخصصة للأنشطة المرتبطة بالكريبتو.
🔍 ما جوهر المقترح؟
الاحتياطي الفيدرالي يقترح السماح بنوع خاص من الحسابات يتيح للبنى التحتية الرقمية وشركات المدفوعات القائمة على البلوكشين الوصول بشكل منظم ومحدود إلى نظام المدفوعات الفيدرالي، دون منحها امتيازات البنوك التجارية الكاملة.
لماذا تدعم Circle هذا التوجه؟
تعزيز كفاءة المدفوعات الرقمية وتسويتها.
تقليل الاعتماد على الوسطاء التقليديين.
توفير إطار تنظيمي أوضح للعملات المستقرة مثل USDC.
تسريع تبني البلوكشين في المدفوعات العابرة للحدود.
⚠️ لكن… أين الجدل؟
جمعيات البنوك الأمريكية أبدت قلقًا واضحًا، معتبرة أن:
توسيع وصول الاحتياطي الفيدرالي لجهات غير مصرفية قد يخلّ بتوازن النظام المالي.
الخطوة قد تمنح شركات الكريبتو أفضلية تنظيمية مقارنة بالبنوك التقليدية.
هناك مخاوف من تآكل دور البنوك كوسيط رئيسي في النظام النقدي.
📌 الخلاصة
نحن أمام نقطة مفصلية:
إما أن نشهد تقاربًا تاريخيًا بين البلوكشين والبنوك المركزية، أو مواجهة تنظيمية جديدة حول حدود النفوذ، والدور الحقيقي للبنوك في عصر المال الرقمي.
القرار النهائي قد يرسم ملامح مستقبل المدفوعات الرقمية عالميًا، وليس في الولايات المتحدة فقط.
#CryptoPayments #USDC #Circle

La posible llegada de Kevin Warsh a la presidencia de la Reserva Federal ha reactivado un debate que podría redefinir el equilibrio entre política monetaria y mercados financieros. Su propuesta de un acuerdo formal entre la FED y el Departamento del Tesoro busca establecer una hoja de ruta clara para reducir el balance del banco central, que aún supera los 6 billones de dólares tras años de flexibilización cuantitativa. Para traders e inversores, este enfoque representa mucho más que un ajuste técnico: es una señal de que la próxima fase del ciclo podría estar marcada por una reducción estructural de la liquidez global y una mayor previsibilidad en las condiciones financieras.

Sin embargo, esta posible coordinación también plantea interrogantes profundos sobre la independencia de la #FED y el futuro de los activos financieros. Históricamente, los periodos de expansión monetaria han impulsado el crecimiento de activos alternativos como $BTC mientras que las fases de ajuste cuantitativo tienden a redefinir las estrategias de inversión. En este contexto, el mercado observa atentamente cada señal, entendiendo que las decisiones de política monetaria no solo impactan el dólar, sino que también moldean el comportamiento del capital global, abriendo riesgos, pero también oportunidades para quienes saben anticipar el cambio.

Si consideras que esta información ha sido útil, te invito a dar un "like" y a suscribirte a mi canal, donde diariamente compartiré contenido relevante sobre el mundo de las criptomonedas.

Aviso Legal ⚠️ La información proporcionada en este canal es únicamente con fines educativos y no debe interpretarse como asesoramiento financiero o estrategias de inversión. No nos hacemos responsables por decisiones tomadas basadas en el contenido presentado.

Dados alternativos como os da Truflation mostram CPI rodando muito abaixo do número oficial, com histórico de antecipar os movimentos do BLS em 45 a 70 dias.
Isso cria um descompasso claro.
Inflação desacelera no mundo real enquanto a política monetária segue restritiva.
É nesse tipo de atraso que o Fed costuma errar.
O mercado já começa a precificar que, com a troca de comando no Federal Reserve e a possível entrada de um chair mais alinhado a crescimento e estabilidade financeira, o próximo regime é de queda de juros, não de aperto.
E isso muda tudo para os mercados.
Juros altos seguram ativos de risco no curto prazo.
Mas quando o ciclo vira, a reprecificação é rápida.

Nesse momento, o truflation já sinaliza inflação de preços em 0.8%, bem abaixo do alvo do Fed.
Isso significa que quando Warsh entrar ele já terá grande espaço para cortar juros e expandir balanço de ativos (RPM?).
Embora tenha um discurso hawkish e possivelmente lute para reduzir balanço no próximo ano, em 2026, é mais provável que siga expandindo liquidez.
E isso não é pressão monetária. É pressão fiscal.
O governo precisa emitir mais dívida.
E para nova rolagem de dívida, é preciso juros mais baixos e liquidez abundante.
É simplesmente inevitável.
Contabilize essa probabilidade nos seus estudos e prepare-se de acordo.
#Fed #Macroeconomia