expectancy

🧮 Expectancy: strategy ka asli report card. Formula: E = (Win% × Avg Win) − (Loss% × Avg Loss)

Chart mein 3 profiles (illustration):
1️⃣ Strategy A: 70% win, 1:1 R:R → E = 0.7(1) − 0.3(1) = +0.40R
2️⃣ Strategy B: 40% win, 1:3 R:R → E = 0.4(3) − 0.6(1) = +0.60R
3️⃣ Strategy C: 80% win, magar har loss 4x ka → E = 0.8(1) − 0.2(4) = 0.00R

C dekho: 80% win rate, profit phir bhi ZERO. B: 40% win rate, phir bhi best.

R = 1 risk unit — multiples mein sochna strategies ko comparable banata hai. Win rate "feels good" metric hai, expectancy "is good" metric. 🎯

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