mstr

Right now, Strategy is underwater.

The buffer between the current #Bitcoin price and Saylor’s average entry is down to just a few hundred dollars per BTC. At one point overnight, the entire position was negative.

And what did Saylor do?

👉 He bought more BTC last week — at prices ABOVE the current market.

I’ve been tracking this story since my December projection. Why? Because Strategy is system-relevant for crypto.

📉 Facts first:

$MSTR stock: –75% from ATH8 consecutive red monthsBitcoin position: near breakeven, briefly underwater

⚠️ Important clarification

There is NO classic margin call.

❌ No Bitcoin is posted as collateral

❌ No lender can force-liquidate BTC

But… there ARE three scenarios where selling BTC could still become necessary.

🔑 Trigger 1: The Put Dates (Convertible Notes)

Strategy issued billions in convertible bonds.

If $MSTR trades below the conversion price, bondholders won’t convert to equity — they’ll demand cash repayment instead 💵.

📆 First major put date: Q3 2027

📉 Current $MSTR price: well below conversion levels

That’s a ticking clock.

🔑 Trigger 2: The Cash-Flow Squeeze

Strategy has five preferred-share series, paying dividends up to 11.25% 😬

💸 Annual dividend obligations

⬆️ Far exceed operating income

At the current burn rate, cash reserves last until ~mid-2028 — exactly when the put dates hit.

That overlap matters.

🔑 Trigger 3: The Flywheel Reverses

The old model was simple:

🔁 Issue shares → Buy BTC → BTC up → Stock up → Repeat

Now?

⚠️ mNAV is close to 1

⚠️ New share issuance causes immediate dilution

Strategy has even admitted that under certain conditions, it may pause new share issuance — with legal “escape clauses.”

That’s the flywheel slowing… maybe reversing.

🧠 Market Signals

Polymarket now shows bankruptcy odds for StrategyInvestor confidence is fragileBitcoin volatility makes timing critical

I don’t see the real danger in 2026.

📍 Q3 2027 is the moment of truth.

If:

#Bitcoin is weak#MSTR stays below conversion prices

Then Saylor needs a Plan B.

📊 Tomorrow: Q4 earnings.

That’s when we’ll see how Strategy explains billions in unrealized BTC losses to the market.

This story is far from over.

I’m staying on it. 🤝
#TrumpEndsShutdown #USIranStandoff #KevinWarshNominationBullOrBear

Bitcoin’s recent slide has hit Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate $BTC holder, with one of the biggest paper losses in its history.

According to filings and on-chain data, Bitcoin falling below its average purchase price has pushed the value of Strategy’s ~713,000 BTC treasury into multi-billion-dollar unrealized losses — the first time in this cycle.

📉 Why This Happened

BTC dipped below key levels near $75,000, causing losses relative to Strategy’s average cost.

Recent purchases at higher prices raised the average cost, amplifying unrealized losses.

No BTC has been sold — Strategy is holding for the long term.

🧠 What This Means

Unrealized losses are not the same as bankruptcy. It’s only paper losses — no BTC has been sold at a loss.

However, the stock price of MSTR, which tracks BTC exposure, feels the pressure.

Raises questions: is holding BTC on a corporate balance sheet brave or risky?

🔥 Community Take

Bears: “BTC isn’t a safe reserve.”
Bulls: “Volatility is part of the game — Strategy is in it for the long haul.”
Degens: “When Saylor bleeds, markets bleed… until liquidity returns.” 😎

📌 Bottom Line
Strategy’s BTC stack has turned big paper profits into big paper losses, but no liquidation occurred. This is a volatility milestone, showing how corporate BTC strategies are tested in choppy markets.
#bitcoin #BTC #strategy #MSTR #MichaelSaylor

مع استمرار تراجع أسعار BTC، أصبحت Strategy بقيادة مايكل سايلور — أكبر شركة تمتلك بيتكوين — أمام واحدة من أكبر الخسائر الورقية في تاريخها.
وفقًا لبيانات حديثة وتقارير على السلسلة، ومع هبوط البيتكوين دون متوسط سعر الشراء، تراجعت قيمة احتياطي الشركة البالغ نحو 713,000 BTC بشكل ملحوظ، لتدخل الخسائر غير المحققة نطاق المليارات لأول مرة خلال هذه الدورة.
📉 ما الذي يقف وراء هذه الخسائر؟
• هبوط BTC دون مستويات مهمة قرب 75,000 دولار ضغط بقوة على متوسط تكلفة الشركة.
• المشتريات الأخيرة عند أسعار مرتفعة رفعت متوسط الشراء وزادت حجم الخسائر الورقية.
• رغم ذلك، لم تقم Strategy ببيع أي بيتكوين وما زالت متمسكة بالاستثمار طويل الأجل.
🧠 ماذا يعني هذا؟
الخسائر غير المحققة ≠ إفلاس.
إنها خسائر على الورق فقط، فالشركة لم تبع أصولها بخسارة. كثير من المستثمرين والمؤسسات في الكريبتو يتحملون التقلبات دون تصفية مراكزهم.
لكن في المقابل:
👉 قد يزيد الضغط على سهم MSTR لأنه يتحرك غالبًا كمؤشر لسعر البيتكوين.
👉 ويعيد الجدل حول مخاطر الاحتفاظ بالبيتكوين في الميزانيات — هل هي خطوة جريئة أم مخاطرة كبيرة؟
🔥 آراء السوق:
الدببة: “هذا دليل أن BTC ليس مخزن قيمة آمن.”
الثيران: “التقلب جزء من اللعبة، وStrategy تراهن على المدى البعيد.”
المضاربون: “حين ينزف سايلور تنزف الأسواق… لكن السيولة تعود دائمًا.” 😎
📌 الخلاصة:
تحولت أرباح Strategy الورقية الضخمة إلى خسائر ورقية كبيرة — لكن دون أي عمليات بيع. إنها علامة على شدة التقلب، وليست حدث تصفية، وتوضح كيف تُختبر استراتيجيات الشركات عندما تصبح الأسواق مضطربة.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #BTC #Strategy #MSTR #MichaelSaylor

看到有人分享
Vanguard購入更多Strategy股票
我心中警鈴大作。
Vanguard 一直是我最欽佩的公司之一，其核心邏輯是被動買入持有，不太可能「主動」抄底購入更多 Strategy 股票。而 MSTR 從去年開始股價已經下跌超過 60%，理論上應該是減持而非增持。
於是直接查找原始資料。發現主流新聞基本上沒有報導 Vanguard 增持 MSTR 的資訊，相關消息幾乎只在社交平台（Facebook、X 等）流傳，或者出現在 Bitget 這類加密貨幣媒體上，而這又轉傳自 The Bitcoin Historian，已經是三手消息了。
事實上，Vanguard 的 13G/A 文件顯示：
其持股從原本 18.5M 股 增至 24M 股
股數增加約 5.5M 股
增持比例約 +29.79%（而非平台說的 21%）
乍看像是大幅增持，但從近半年新聞，就能找到合理解釋：
2025/10/23 VGT 購入 1.7M 股：追蹤 MSCI 美國可投資市場資訊科技25/50指數
2026/01/16 VMCIX 購入 2.91M 股：追蹤 CRSP 美國中型股指數
2026/01/20 VVIAX 購入 1.23M 股：追蹤 CRSP 美國大盤價值指數
三者合計約 5.8M 股，與文件增持數字非常接近。
也就是說，Vanguard 並非「主動」「抄底」MSTR，而是多個被動追蹤不同指數的 ETF 在被動執行指數買盤。剛好 MSTR 被新納入了三種指數，因此出現一次性被動買盤，之後就會按照指數規則再平衡。
如果 MSTR 股價跌出指數，Vanguard 同樣會毫不留情地賣出，不存在主動增持。
這一切完全符合被動基金的邏輯，足夠強就納入，不到門檻就滾，無關乎 Vanguard CEO 喜不喜歡 $BTC 。
被動資金是鑽石手，但夠格才會不放手。

#MSTR #BTC #Vanguard

As $BTC prices continue to slide#MichaelSaylor Strategy — the world’s largest corporate BTC holder — is now facing one of the biggest unrealized paper losses in its history.
According to recent filings and on-chain data, with #bitcoin trading below its average purchase cost, the value of Strategy’s ~713,000 BTC treasury has dropped sharply, pushing unrealized losses into the multi-billion-dollar zone for the first time in this cycle.
📉 What’s Driving the Loss • BTC price slipped below key support near $75,000, impacting Strategy’s cost basis.
• Recent high-price buys raised the average entry, widening paper losses.
• Despite volatility, Strategy has not sold any Bitcoin and remains committed long term.
🧠 What This Means Unrealized losses ≠ bankruptcy.
This is paper pressure, not a realized loss — no BTC has been sold. Many institutions and long-term investors ride out drawdowns without exiting positions.
But: 👉 It increases pressure on MSTR stock, which trades like a BTC proxy.
👉 It reignites debate over treasury holding risk vs active trading.
🔥 Community Take Bears: “This proves BTC isn’t a stable reserve.”
Bulls: “Volatility is normal — long-term conviction matters.”
Degens: “When Saylor bleeds, markets shake… until liquidity returns.” 😎
📌 Bottom Line Strategy’s massive BTC stack has shifted from large paper profit to large paper loss — but holdings remain untouched.
This is a volatility stress test, not a liquidation event — showing how corporate Bitcoin strategies are tested when markets turn rough. $BTC
#Bitcoin❗ $BTC #MSTR #MichaelSayl