Money left the network this week — over $20 million bridged out to other chains. At the same time, a well-known trader looked at the exact same data everyone else was reading as bearish and called it one of his top picks.
Avalanche saw a $20.9 million net bridge outflow to other ecosystems over the past week, the kind of number that usually reads as capital voting with its feet. But Michaël van de Poppe flagged AVAX as a standout pick anyway, pointing to bullish divergence and genuine RWA activity building underneath the outflow headline.
The 4H chart supports the divergence read more than the outflow one: after chopping in a 6.3–6.9 range for days, AVAX dropped sharply to a low near 6.19 around July 23–24, then reversed hard, rallying back to a high near 6.89 before settling at its current 6.669. It's trading above the EMA9 (6.638) and EMA21 (6.551), testing the long-declining EMA200 trendline near 6.68–6.69 from below, with RSI at a moderate 59.08 and the MACD histogram strongly positive at 0.0425.
A sharp V-shaped reversal off a multi-day low, with momentum this strong, is the kind of setup that often does mark a genuine shift — but testing a long-declining trendline from below is exactly where prior rallies have failed before. The outflow and the divergence call aren't actually contradictory — money can leave a chain while its highest-conviction holders and RWA activity keep growing.
Whether AVAX clears that trendline or gets rejected by it again is what decides which story wins.
Not financial advice — for informational purposes only.
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