Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top. Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below). Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it. Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏 #Bitcoin #BTC #Halving #Cycles #HalvingCylces #BitcoinCycles #BTCcycles
Three days in a row, I stressed that $BTC seems to have reached the top on the Daily. I'm glad to see that my intuition was right. The short-term bearish scenario is in play, and the liquidity under 60800 is getting closer and closer. I'm waiting for that move, although it could take several days to play out.
Looking at the high-timeframe situation, the dead cat bounce on the daily chart has indeed formed a local top. Keeping last week's bullish engulfing candle in mind, a bounce from 60800 could still give us a bullish continuation.
However, this chart is within a strong downtrend (and stock indices look even worse), so downside momentum remains stronger. A dip to the 58-60k range will give this market a real test; if it fails to bounce, it will breakdown heavily to 49k–52k. If magic happens and the bulls win this fight, the next HTF zone will be 68-72k.
$BTC enters choppy stage when it is especially hard to predict the move. Same POC at ~62666 supports the price, but after yesterday's flash dip I doubt we will see same fast recovery (if it dips again).
So either price will consolidate above that level with chances for breakout higher towards 65200 or the next dip finally takes BTC to 60800 liquidity pool
High timeframe situation - dead cat bounce on daily still looks like it has reached the top. Week closed with bullish engulfing, but within downtrend. I'd be prepared for re-test of 58-60k and either bounce/consolidation with next upper target 68-72k or breakdown dump to 49k–52k.
$BTC covered the FVG from June 23rd and hit my target zone 63-64k ✅ The lower magnet zone around ~60.8k now is the nearest biggest liquidity pool, so pretty high chances for US to open after long weekend with dump towards that area.
However, to kick off that correction scenario, the price needs to find acceptance under ~62666, as this zone correlates with the local POC. While trades above within LTF uptrend BTC keeps the potential to push higher. If that surprise scenario happens, make sense to wait till ~65300 before taking any action.
High timeframe situation - dead cat bounce on daily near the top. Week closed with bullish engulfing, but within downtrend on its own its not a very strong signal. I'd be prepared for re-test of 58-60k and either bounce/consolidation with next upper target 68-72k or breakdown dump to 49k–52k.
$BTC tested Daily 20EMA and took a pause ✅ While consolidates may dip to ~60.8k or continue towards 62555 / 63500. Fifty fifty. Actually both moves will happen and zones will be covered sooner or later - we just can't predict the sequence of moves.
High timeframe situation remain the same - dead cat bounce on daily near the top, or at the very beginning on weekly. Either that bounce ends around 63-64k (Daily) or extend into Weekly dead cat bounce with potential rejection zone around 68-72k. After that re-test of 58-60k and in case of breakdown dump to 49k–52k.
#Ethereum HTF POC formed during last 5.5 years is around 1570-1600. So far it acts as support.
FIVE & a HALF years Carl! So either it sends $ETH back to 2500-2750 or next time price drops below it, it will flip into heavy resistance and dump it much lower.
#Ethereum HTF POC formed during last 5.5 years is around 1570-1600. So far it acts as support.
FIVE & a HALF years Carl! So either it sends $ETH back to 2500-2750 or next time price drops below it, it will flip into heavy resistance and dump it much lower.
High timeframe situation remain the same - bearish month close holds momentum that is capable to push price lower towards 49k–52k. That means that current bounce should be monitored with that idea in mind. Waiting for a clear rejection within one of upper target zones to short it.
#Gold closed June with strong bearish momentum. It should take price lower, even if the result of that bearish more will be bullish bounce. Doesn't matter.
Inevitable target for that move located under 3900.
If $XAU bounce before the dip, watch ~4150 zone as most obvious resistance above.
June closed bearish. It looks similar to what the market showed during the 2022 correction stage. There is no sense in forecasting anything, as the next candle can be anything. However, we have several levels on the chart to watch from a high-timeframe view.
On the upside, the zone around 65k will likely act as resistance. Whether $BTC will get there before going lower or not is impossible to predict.
On the downside, the next target zone for the dips (which might act as support and cause a bounce) may be around 49k–52k.
From a lower-timeframe perspective, there is nothing interesting so far. The downtrend remains strong, and the price action hasn't given any hints of a reversal yet. The bearish monthly candle forms downside momentum that should push the price lower in any case, even if July ends up closing above 58k.
Downtrend stays on so downside movements have higher probability.
Monday closed bullish, but now $BTC price is under week's open - hunt for stops under yesterday's low (58850) is likely and it can trigger a strong impulse down.
Nearest resistance comes from 59550-59900 zone. If any surprise move follows and market breaks through that zone, we may count on 61150 / 62k re-test. But that scenario is against the trend, so less visible.
$XAU has an interesting chart to trade. Last 10 weeks spent forming second correction leg down on Weekly (with 5 last W candles red in a row). Long enough to count on relief bounce.
Now at SR level formed in the end of October'25, beginning of November'25 (base formed before Gold went up by 43%).
Volume profile show POC at ~4072 and then gap till ~4140. So if there will be a bullish move, high chances for breakout into the gap.
Lower LPs (3980 / 3935) could be visited as well and should be watched for potential reversal.
Weekend was quite, but this week promise to bring some volatility. Why?
Thursday - US Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Following Friday - bank Holiday. That means that Mon-Wed may be low volume choppy preparation period, while Thursday will hit thinner books with much more violent price action.
If manipulation pump $BTC price zone around ~62k remains the nearest magnet. In very bearish scenario price can be stopped lower around 61.2k, but I tend to think that move to 62k will be more attractive in terms of liquidity.
Nearest downside liquidity pool I previously mentioned at 58.9k was hit last week ✅ Next zones to watch are 57.4k, 54.8k, and 52.5k.
The Bottom Line: The huge volume on our dip to the 60.3k major liquidity pool shows the bulls are fighting, but we aren't out of the woods. This is the final line of defense. If 60.3k gives way, a fast slide to 52k–55k is locked in. Risk of #Bitcoin collapse is at an all-time high.
Bounce looks weak. Liquidity pool around 61600 not yet covered. And that is the biggest LP within visible range. All that hints that we may expect another leg down.
Within downtrend $BTC still can revisit 63.3k (the weekly open) and 64.3k (LP) for more liquidity.
Next big LP is around 60.3k - very close to the bottom of that consolidation range. If breaks down and won't create failed swing, that may lead to another HTF leg down to 52–55k.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 82828, 78180, 76800, 69000, 67700, and wedge trendline
The US session swept liquidity above 65k and dumped $BTC back under last week's low. The 63k level offered zero reaction on the retest - the market is looking lower for true liquidity around 60.3-60.8k.
⚠️ Macro Risk: This liquidity pool sits right at the bottom of our bearish consolidation range, increasing the odds of a breakdown toward 52k–55k.
🔄 Short-Term View: Expect a relief bounce, though bear market bounces are notoriously tricky to measure. Keep an eye on these two primary targets for a potential retest: • 63.3k (Weekly Open) • 63.8k (Breakdown Level)
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 82828, 78180, 76800, 69000, 67700, and wedge trendline
$BTC has reached all of my short-term bearish targets. ✅ The final target triggered a bounce back to the trendline, but neither weekend traders nor the Asian session managed to push the price back above it.
A strong impulse move is coming in the next few days, maybe even today. Our immediate zones of interest are 63k (Friday's US close) and 65k (LP & FVG).
The weekly and daily charts remain bearish. While the Asian pump at the week's open offers a chance for some lower-timeframe (LTF) bullishness, that potential needs to find support from the UK and US sessions in order to truly develop.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 82828, 78180, 76800, 69000, 67700, 62232 and wedge trendline
$BTC gave a bullish vibes on first re-test bounce, but it faded away very quickly, eliminating 7 hours progress in 2 hours dump. So now the picture is the opposite.
First of all, 63650 low got to be crossed. Next FVG at ~63250 and 62280. One of them may stop the price, but since market ignored huge LP at 67.7k, it may want to go low in order to collect similar liquidity.
I can be wrong again today. But that is how it looks now. Besides DXY is pumping into 1 year old range top. That may lead to DXY breakout and everything else dump.
💡 Camping with zero internet connection till Monday. See you next week ✌🏼
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 82828, 78180, 76800, 69000, 67700, 64450 and wedge trendline
$BTC partially filled the 64–65k gap left after Sunday’s pump ✅
The logic is simple now: the largest liquidity cluster still sits above ~67.7k, so if the market wants more blood, it will likely push price higher first.
📉 Bearish scenario: a move back below 65.5k would likely open the door for a retracement toward 63.3k and lower, where liquidity is more widely distributed.
I'm leaving the computer until Monday. Time to live in the woods, fish in the nearby river, and enjoy camping with zero connection to charts. See you next week ✌🏼
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 82828, 78180, 76800, 69000, 67700, 64450 and wedge trendline