Awesome, this analysis really resonates with me. I shorted gold and silver at 5600/120, and I just knew silver would definitely dip back into the 5 range. A lot of folks from TikTok/Xiaohongshu are jumping over the wall to check out my posts, just looking for a chance to break even and cut losses on their high-position gold trades. I really want to help them, but I've been hesitant to think about the possibility of breaking below the daily candlestick's support.
Right now, I’m not taking anyone with me because I need to gain some clarity. I have to step back from this environment and return to my original self to regain my trading instincts.
HODL is king, it's freaking amazing, sucking the life out of the entire market. All trading assets are just depending on the storage front. Bitcoin used to be a profitable asset through trading, but now there's zero liquidity; when the US markets crash, it crashes too, and when the US markets rebound, it bounces back. The rest of the time is just dead time.
No profits from short positions, no profits from long positions.
On March 17, crcl 130, you can check out the comments section on Wufan's post It's all about FOMO, missing the boat, when can I hop on, thanks to the mentor.
On June 25, crcl 70, mentor, I’m really frustrated, holding crcl and missing out on the entire bull run. The comments section has many of my followers, I took screenshots, don’t mind it.
I can only say one thing to all the internet influencers and to myself: Never share any opinions or strategies on social platforms, if you lose they’ll roast you, if you win, they’ll thank you.
From now on, I won’t recommend anything anymore; I’ll just be a news blogger.
After 8 years of trading, I've hit countless stop losses. Some right, some wrong, it's hard to keep count. I used to win consistently, making the market seem easy, but this time, I’ll share my experience with stop losses to show you just how tough this path can be. If you're stepping into trading, think twice; 90% of people aren't cut out for it.
I've had my views shattered time and again, yet I still have to grit my teeth and hit that stop loss button. I want to remind everyone that if you get a stop loss wrong, own it. Preserving your capital and sitting on the sidelines to observe the market gives you a clearer perspective.
The hardest part about being a KOL or a blogger is admitting to your followers when you're wrong. It's a tough pill to swallow because everyone cares about their reputation. Most people choose to stay silent when they screw up, but if you don’t come forward right away, many who trust you may end up holding the bag and ultimately face liquidation.
On November 15, 2018, I followed someone in the top 10 of the BitMEX leaderboards. Back then, I was a total newbie. He won many times, but when he misjudged the market, I ended up getting wrecked too. It took me 8 months to recover, and since then, I’ve learned to trust my own analysis; if I'm wrong, I only have myself to blame.
If the influencer you're following is shorting semiconductors and storage while claiming they're making bank during a major bullish run, that's a red flag. Conversely, if they were long during an entire bear market and then claim they made a killing, that's suspicious too.
Be cautious of influencers who can share their insights and are willing to admit when they're wrong, rather than those who only flaunt their wins and go silent when they lose.
Today, I've had a great success. Previously, I acknowledged my stop losses in front of a few hundred or a few thousand people, but this time, I did it in front of 70,000 😄. This step is a massive mental breakthrough.
We need to tweak our trading approach here; stop staring at the candlesticks since they're not offering much insight. Let's wait for the sentiment to play out. Storing losses, KOSPI down, US stocks down, gold and silver down - all markets are in sync.
Previously, I had 40 long positions at 4100 and hedged with short positions in between. The longs have been bleeding for a while while the shorts have been in the green. From my holdings, I can feel the market's weakness, so we can’t just rely on candlestick patterns indicating a second bottom.
That long on June 11 was too easy; after closing 60 contracts at 4300, I didn’t pay much attention to the subsequent action. Let’s hold off on opening any new positions for now and just wait.
I updated the video on the gold price the night before last, saying the opportunity is between 4060 and 4100, and it can't drop below 4020. Today it got there, but this opportunity isn't as solid as it was on June 11th. Back then, I went long with 100 lots; today, I might just open 10 lots for fun, so the opportunity isn't as big as you might think.
Don't rush it; any big opportunities with leverage will be signaled by the bot or I'll drop a video. Let's take it slow for now.
Last time at the Hynix peak, the Korean high-ups said the risks were too high, and then it tanked 30%. When it hit the bottom, Lee Jae-myung stepped in to stabilize everyone.
Yesterday, the Korean officials said we shouldn't launch a storage leverage ETF, and today it tanked again. Don't rush the bottom; clear out 20% to 30% leverage while we wait for the Korean officials to stabilize the market.
But seriously, how long can this go on? Right now, storage feels like it's not driven by AI demand anymore; everyone is going crazy with leverage, pushing in. There’s bound to be another 20-30% drop that can't be held, just pure volatility amplifier.
Cbrs IPO price at 185, a lot of folks are waiting to scoop up at the IPO price, but it hasn't hit that yet, bounced back from a low of 196 with a 30% pump.
Spcx IPO price at 135, do you think we’ll see it drop down to the IPO price or will it get close enough for a bounce?
The market had a flash crash at the start of the month and another one at the end. This shows that the leverage is too high; last time it took three months to see a crash, this time only half a month.
Micron's last earnings report peaked on March 18. Hynix also took a nosedive, so Micron's earnings won't provide any bullish momentum. Over the next few days, don't rush to chase high storage prices; there should be a chance to short.
I'm currently on 3mg of slow-release melatonin and it's mind-blowing. Last night I hit the hay at 1 AM and didn’t wake up until noon, woke up once but was able to drift back to sleep, way better than taking Dali's stuff.
1) Stay away from those vague influencers, especially the ones who come out after the market moves and repost their ambiguous opinions to subtly claim they were right. They're just clueless.
2) Bullish is bullish, bearish is bearish. Only follow traders who can clearly express their views; even if they're wrong, it’s fine. A normal trader knows what price and position to act upon.
3) Anyone who only shouts bearish or bullish for a long time is getting blocked. Sticking to one viewpoint for too long usually leads to being right eventually.
I've been in the crypto game for 8 years since 2018, switching through four social media accounts. I started on Weibo, then moved to Coin, and even traded on various contract platforms. I used to run several WeChat groups with over 500 members, and I had thousands of crypto friends. Now, I’ve trimmed my WeChat to just 200 friends, cleaning house.
I've guided countless people, and I've seen many who felt like trading geniuses after a short win against the market, only to lose it all and exit the scene. To everyone who made a profit in a certain market wave, I'll remind them to cash out and keep their wealth.
Every time I hit a big win or feel the need for a break, I delete my social media accounts, disband all groups, and remove all crypto-related friends. I also never participate in any exchange activities.
After a break, I usually register a new social media account to share again because the trading journey can be incredibly lonely; you need a place to vent. Many old group friends recognized me from my voice in videos and the things I've taught, and they know my personality—we don't disturb each other.
Whether it's running a social media account, recording videos, or building a website, it all comes down to the boredom and loneliness of trading. I used to create many chat groups, but they were pointless; everyone just adds noise. A little price increase is called a pump, a slight decrease is labeled a dump—none of this helps you trade better, hence I have no group chats.
I can sense that the content and time I can provide to you are running low. This account has been my most successful since I started last year, but brothers, I can't stick around forever. Everyone can only walk part of the path with you; separation is inevitable.
Life is a process of continuous meetings and constant farewells.
If one day I stop updating and delete the account, don’t be surprised; it might happen suddenly one day. Any remaining subscription time on the site will be proportionally refunded. In all these years, I've seen very few who can sustain their victories in trading over the long haul. I hope some of you can, and I can only help you this much.
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