Bitcoin currently has one unpleasant feature: the chart starts to look as if the market decided to test how much investors love beautiful cycles. The 1064-day theory really looks impressive. In the two previous cycles, the distance from the bottom to the peak was close to this mark: about 1068 days in the 2015–2017 cycle and 1061 days in the 2018–2021 cycle. But calling it “exactly 1064 days” is still not quite accurate. And in the current cycle, the match is no longer as perfect: from the November 2022 low to the all-time high on October 6, 2025, about 1050 days have passed. So there is a calendar pattern, but it’s not Swiss watch precision. And then it gets more interesting. If we take this model as a working hypothesis, then after the October 2025 peak, the market should indeed be in a declining phase, and the October 2026 area can be considered a possible window for bottom formation. But this is precisely where a problem arises for those who relied too heavily on the calendar. In August, Bitcoin suddenly came back to life: within a few days, BTC returned above $70,000 and then moved close to $80,000. Along with it, Ethereum and crypto companies surged sharply.
As long as the crypto market still has two systemic problems, I wouldn’t rush to declare the start of a new phase of mass adoption. First—turning AML from a risk-control tool into infrastructure for total surveillance. The issue isn’t with AML itself. The problem begins where the financial system doesn’t just require proving that a transaction complies with the rules, but gradually tries to link every action to a specific individual and a centralized intermediary.
In the market right now, there are three companies I’d pay attention to after some fairly harsh sell-offs: AppLovin, Rambus, and Fair Isaac. Everyone has different businesses, but the general idea is the same: the quotes have noticeably moved away from their highs, yet the financial results look much better than you’d think from the chart.
It’s hard to describe Palantir as simply an «AI company» anymore. It’s more like a software layer that helps governments and large businesses turn huge amounts of scattered data into solutions, and in the defense sector — into concrete actions. And the numbers now confirm that behind this beautiful story there really is a business that’s growing very fast.
Nebius I wouldn’t dismiss it just because Michael Burry shorts it. Burry is, after all, a person who can find a bubble even within a bubble. But Nebius has an important feature: it is no longer the story of the “former Yandex.” In 2024, Yandex N.V. fully exited the Russian business, and the remaining international structure was relaunched as an independent Western company focused on AI infrastructure.