Cointelegraph

Comisia pentru comercianții de mărfuri futures (CFTC) a intentat un proces împotriva New York-ului pentru a opri statul să aplice legile sale privind jocurile de noroc platformelor de piață de predicție reglementate la nivel federal, escaladând un conflict tot mai mare asupra cine are autoritatea de a supraveghea aceste produse.

Într-o plângere depusă în Curtea Districtuală a Statelor Unite pentru Districtul Sudic al New York-ului, CFTC a argumentat că legea federală îi oferă autoritate exclusivă asupra acestor piețe, cerând instanței un verdict declaratoriu și o interdicție permanentă împotriva acțiunilor de aplicare a legii din New York.

Bitcoin (BTC) risked a return to $73,000 as the weekend began after bulls failed to reclaim a key trend line.

Key points:

Bitcoin price analysis increasingly sees $73,000 getting retested in the short term.

A weekly trend line has stayed in place as resistance since October 2025.

Bearish BTC price forecasts keep sub-$60,000 in play — even with a weekly close above resistance.

$73,000 in focus as BTC price retracement zone

Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin’s 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) refusing to give up control of BTC price resistance.

The moving average, which BTC/USD has traded below since October 2025, sat at $78,400 on the day.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that continued rejection at the 21-week EMA would result in a reversal to retest local lows.

“Bitcoin continues to resist from the 21-week EMA (green),” he wrote in an X post alongside an explanatory chart, repeating earlier concerns. 

“Unless BTC is able to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support... Then this EMA could indeed force BTC into a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom price broke out from last week.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As Cointelegraph reported, the resistance forms one side of Bitcoin’s bull market support band.

Bitcoin still risks a sub-$60,000 comedown

Continuing, trader Killa, long bearish on the BTC price outlook, had fresh bad news for bulls.

Even a close above resistance at $80,000 or higher, they argued, might not be enough to save BTC/USD from new macro lows under $60,000.

“With the monthly close next week, volatility and fakeouts are likely. If May opens strong and pushes higher early in the month, there’s a good chance that move could mark the pivot high before a bearish May follows,” an X post on Friday read. 

“Either way, a close above resistance does not always mean true acceptance. In a broader macro downtrend, breaks above key levels can often be used to trap late positions.”

BTC/USD chart with key nearby levels. Source: Killa/X

Killa added that there was a “strong chance” of price revisiting $73,000. 

Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-owned news outlet Agência Brasil. Authorities claimed that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and therefore operate illegally.

“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.

The crackdown follows Resolution 5.298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on Friday, which takes effect in early May and sharply limits what prediction market platforms can offer. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments.

Only contracts linked to economic indicators, such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices, will remain allowed and fall under financial market oversight.

Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk

Durigan claimed that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.

The blocked platforms include a mix of international and Brazil-focused services, with major names including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (via its forecasting feature) and Fanatics Markets.

Banned prediction markets in Brazil. Source: Agência Brasil

Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, alongside several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.

More countries ban prediction markets

A growing number of jurisdictions have moved to ban prediction markets, often folding them into gambling or financial regulations. Several European nations, including France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have blocked or penalized platforms operating without authorization.

In the United States, the situation is more fragmented, with an ongoing tug-of-war between federal regulators and individual states over prediction markets.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

XRP (XRP) a crescut cu mai mult de 30% în ultimele trei luni, iar semnalele tehnice și pe blockchain sugerează că perechea XRP/USD ar putea avea mai mult potențial de creștere în continuare.

Graficul zilnic XRP/USD. Sursa: TradingView

Puncte cheie:

Ieșirile de pe burse, fluxurile pozitive de balene și cererea puternică pentru ETF-uri îmbunătățesc perspectiva bullish pentru XRP.

O configurație de tip wedge preconizează o creștere a prețului de aproximativ 30% până în iunie.

Aproape 35 milioane XRP în ieșiri de pe burse susțin cazul de creștere

Începând de sâmbătă, XRP Ledger (XRPL) a înregistrat aproape 35 milioane XRP în ieșiri de pe burse în ultimele 24 de ore, marcând a șasea cea mai mare ieșire zilnică a anului, conform Santiment.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have extended their inflow momentum through late April, notching a nine-day streak amid growing investor conviction.

During the period, which spanned April 14 and April 24, total net inflows reached roughly $2.12 billion, with the strongest single-day performance on April 17, when funds attracted $663.91 million. April 14 and April 22 also posted robust gains of $411.50 million and $335.82 million, respectively.

The weakest day came on Friday, with a more modest $14.45 million in net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led the day with $22.88 million in inflows. In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC recorded outflows of $1.69 million, while Bitwise’s BITB and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB saw withdrawals of $8.85 million and $9.02 million, respectively. Other funds, including Grayscale’s GBTC and smaller products, reported largely flat flows.

The April streak is the first nine-day run for spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs since a similar run in October, when inflows surged, including $1.21 billion on Oct. 6 and $875.6 million on Oct. 7.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs see 9-day inflow streak. Source: SoSoValue

The sustained inflows also come alongside a strengthening Bitcoin market, with BTC currently trading at $77,516.55, up 10.73% over the past month, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin ETF investors hold firm

The recent steady stream of capital has pushed flows back into positive territory for 2026, with cumulative total net inflows reaching $58.23 billion.

This trend comes even as Bitcoin remains about 35% below its record high reached in early October, ETF analyst Nate Geraci wrote in a recent post on X. He said this pattern suggests that ETF investors are taking a longer-term approach rather than reacting to short-term volatility. The continued inflows during a market drawdown point to a more resilient investor base, often described as “diamond hands” in crypto circles.

“ETF investors proving to be longer-term allocators,” he wrote.

Ether ETFs see strong inflows

US spot Ether (ETH) ETFs also maintained a strong inflow streak from April 14 through April 22, posting nine consecutive days of net positive flows. However, the streak was broken on April 23, when funds recorded net outflows of $75.94 million.

During the nine-day run from April 14 to April 22, total inflows were consistently solid, with the strongest single-day performance on April 17, when Ether ETFs attracted $127.49 million. Other standout sessions included April 22 with $96.44 million and April 20 with $67.77 million.

Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

Key takeaways:

A whale linked to asset manager Fasanara Capital holds a $38 million crypto short position, but will it impact Bitcoin’s price?

Negative futures funding rates at Binance and Bybit point to unusual demand for bearish positioning despite BTC’s recent price gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to trade above $78,000 on Friday, but the overall setup remains bullish. BTC gained 29% since the $60,100 yearly low on Feb. 6, and many analysts believe it is on the verge of a longer-term breakout. At the same time, a bearish Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid exchange has maintained a large short position. The whale has made $159 million in profits over the past seven months. Does its positioning provide any signal that the market should pay attention to? 

Hyperliquid whale profit and loss data. Source: CoinGlass

The entity behind address 0x7fda…c517d1 (also known as BobbyBigSize) on Hyperliquid exchange excelled during the market crash between October to November 2025 by placing leveraged short bets on Ether (ETH), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Avalanche (AVAX), and Fartcoin, among others. The account has failed to sustain its gains, resulting in a $561,000 loss over the past 30 days.

The whale is bullish on ETH, but bearish on BTC and altcoins

Using algorithmic trading, the whale opened short-duration long positions in Bitcoin and Solana (SOL) in the past, resulting in a staggering $11 billion in trades on Hyperliquid exchange. BobbyBigSize currently holds $19.4 million in assets deposited on the platform. 63% of its trades result in positive outcomes, which is considered highly successful.

BobbyBigSize’s current positions, USD. Source: Hyperdash

Currently, BobbyBigSize holds a $38 million short position in BTC and multiple altcoins. The trader also opened a $21 million leveraged long ETH position last week, indicating short-term confidence. Generally, the portfolio positioning is bearish, suggesting an expectation of a short-term correction.

The average trade duration for BobbyBigSize has been slightly longer than two weeks, while the median position has lasted for less than four days, according to Hyperdash data. Arkham data previously linked this address to Fasanara Capital, a London-based institutional asset manager. The company reportedly manages over $5 billion in assets.

Source: X/Arkham

According to Fasanara Digital’s website, it launched in 2018 and manages $400 million across market-neutral strategies and venture investments. In parallel, a quantitative multi-manager approach in various liquid markets manages $150 million. However, the strategy behind the fund’s approach to cryptocurrency was not clearly specified.

Hyperliquid DEX annualized funding rates. Source: Hyperliquid.xyz

Funding rates for BTC and ETH stood slightly positive on Hyperliquid, indicating moderate demand for leveraged long positions. Under neutral circumstances, longs pay 6% to 12% annualized rates to maintain their positions. Currently, funding rates are negative on Binance and Bybit, signaling unusually high demand for bearish leverage.

Algorithmic traders are erratic and unpredictable, and losses by “BobbyBigSize” over the past couple of months evidence that no single trading strategy lasts indefinitely. However, this whale’s bearish positioning aligns with the increased demand for leveraged short positions; therefore, Bitcoin traders should not discard the possibility of a retest of the $75,000 level.

Secretarul Trezoreriei SUA, Scott Bessent, a anunțat că Biroul pentru Controlul Activelor Străine (OFAC) a sancționat mai multe wallet-uri legate de Iran, rezultând în înghețarea a 344 milioane de dolari în criptomonedă de către autorități.

Într-o postare X de vineri, Bessent a declarat că mișcarea OFAC face parte din eforturile SUA de a „degrada sistematic capacitatea Teheranului de a genera, muta și repatria fonduri.” SUA și Israel au lansat atacuri aeriene comune asupra Iranului la sfârșitul lunii februarie.

Bitcoin developer Paul Sztorc announced on Friday that a new hard fork of the Bitcoin network called eCash will be deployed in August.

Bitcoin holders will be able to exchange their BTC for eCash at a 1:1 ratio once the hard fork is live, Sztorc said in an X post.

He added that the layer-1 node software for the chain will be a “near-copy” of the BTC Core client software and will use the SHA-256 hashing algorithm used by the Bitcoin blockchain, with a reduced initial mining difficulty to make it easier for participants to mine blocks.

Source: Paul Sztorc

The new layer-1 hard fork will also have seven layer-2 scaling networks called “drivechains,” for increased transaction throughput and optional onchain privacy, he said.

Sztorc distanced the eCash hard fork from previous attempts to hard fork the Bitcoin protocol, including Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which was created in 2017 but failed to become the dominant chain. However, the announcement drew mixed reactions.

Bitcoin community reacts to Sztorc’s announcement

“Unlike BCH, the 2017 fork, there is no ‘Bitcoin’ in the name,” Sztorc said, adding, “This is a permanent and sustainable fix to Bitcoin's problems.”

He added that the forked chain would “manually” reassign a portion of Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million BTC stash to early investors.

“Taking Satoshi coins is theft and disrespectful, and eCash is already used for Lightning payments with Cashu and Fedi. Those are poor choices,” Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack said in response.

Source: Paul Sztorc

“I give you two or three years to fold completely,” Bitcoin advocate PakoVM said about the planned hard fork.

The announcement came amid a growing debate about Bitcoin’s tech stack and whether the protocol should introduce privacy-preserving features and post-quantum resistance.

“Back in 2017, the Bitcoin tech stack was strong, and expectations for Lightning were strong. Today, it is the reverse,” Sztorc said.

The Bitcoin Lightning Network is a layer-2 scaling solution for BTC that allows transactions to be processed within seconds, instead of waiting 10-minutes for transactions to settle to the main Bitcoin ledger.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt

Într-o repetare a anului 2025, cei mai importanți deținători ai memecoin-ului oficial al președintelui american Donald Trump, Official Trump (TRUMP), se vor aduna pentru un eveniment privat pe care mulți critici l-au descris ca vânzând acces la președinție.

Sâmbătă, Trump și până la 297 dintre deținătorii săi de memecoin-uri se vor întâlni la proprietatea președintelui de la Mar-a-Lago în Florida. Conform proiectului din spatele memecoin-ului, participanții vor include pe CEO-ul Tether, Paolo Ardoino, fondatorul și CEO-ul exchange-ului de criptomonede Upbit, ChiHyung Song, avocatul Bitcoin (BTC) Anthony Pompliano, co-fondatorul și CEO-ul Anchorage Digital, Nathan McCauley și mulți alții asociați cu instituții financiare, crypto și blockchain.

Aurelion, o companie listată pe Nasdaq care construiește o trezorerie susținută de Tether Gold, a alocat 10.000 de unități ale tokenului, în valoare de aproximativ 48 milioane de dolari, unui protocol nou lansat destinat generării de randament pe aurul tokenizat.

Protocolul DeFi, XAUE, a fost introdus mai devreme în săptămâna aceasta de către Fundația Aurise ca un strat de trezorerie pentru Tether Gold, permițând utilizarea aurului tokenizat în strategii generatoare de randament, menținând în același timp expunerea la activul de bază.

Aurelion este forma rebranded a managerului de avere și active Prestige Wealth și își poziționează Tether Gold ca un activ de rezervă principal. În octombrie 2025, compania a strâns 150 milioane de dolari în finanțare, inclusiv o investiție privată în capital public de 100 milioane de dolari și o facilitate de datorie de 50 milioane de dolari, pentru a susține strategia.

Proiectul Eleven, o companie de cercetare în securitate cuantică, a acordat un premiu cercetătorului Giancarlo Lelli pentru că a folosit un computer cuantic pentru a sparge o cheie eliptică de 15 biți — o versiune de mică amploare a aceleași criptografii folosite în Bitcoin, care se bazează pe chei mult mai mari de 256 de biți.

Lelli a reușit să deriveze o cheie privată din cheia publică asociată, folosind o „variantă” a algoritmului lui Shor, un algoritm de factorizare a numerelor întregi pentru computere cuantice, conform anunțului Proiectului 11 de vineri.

Comitetul de acțiune politică Fellowship (PAC), care a lansat afirmația că are mai mult de 100 de milioane de dolari de la susținători aliniați crypto, a raportat că s-a retras dintr-un acord de publicitate pentru a-l susține pe procurorul general al Texasului, Ken Paxton, într-o cursă crucială pentru Senatul SUA.

Conform unui raport de joi de la Axios, liderii republicani l-au contactat pe secretarul de comerț al SUA, Howard Lutnick, pentru legăturile sale cu Fellowship, care a fost parțial finanțat de Cantor Fitzgerald.

Lutnick, fost președinte și CEO, iar acum fiii săi fiind la conducerea companiei de servicii financiare, a fost supus unor întrebări din partea republicanilor cu privire la sprijinul Fellowship pentru Paxton, despre care PAC-ul a raportat că a cheltuit 1,75 milioane de dolari în publicitate de susținere.

Numele cunoscute au acumulat agresiv Bitcoin (BTC) și Ether (ETH), dar de data aceasta, cumpărarea lor vine pe fondul unor semne timpurii de reversare a pieței.

În această săptămână, Strategy a făcut una dintre cele mai mari achiziții de Bitcoin din istorie, aducând totalul deținerilor sale bine peste 800.000 BTC. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, în ciuda pierderilor nerealizate semnificative, a executat cea mai mare achiziție de Ether din decembrie încoace.

Dincolo de tezaurii de active digitale, finanțele tradiționale continuă să testeze infrastructura blockchain, Japonia explorând utilizarea obligațiunilor guvernamentale onchain. În Statele Unite, reglementarea avansează în continuare, deși lent, deoarece legiuitorii rămân împărțiți cu privire la legislația cheie privind structura pieței.

Bitcoin (BTC) a rămas lipit de $78,000 vineri, cu piețele „așteptând claritate” din războiul SUA-Iran.

Puncte cheie:

Bitcoin se oprește în încercarea sa de a recâștiga $80,000, în timp ce acțiunile din SUA stagnează.

Sunt necesare câteva câștiguri puternice pentru a susține avansul acțiunilor, spune analiza.

Suportul prețului BTC este în pericol să cedeze următorul.

Bitcoin se alătură activelor riscante "tăind lateral"

Datele de la TradingView au urmărit acțiunea de preț a BTC care a fost plată în ultima sesiune de tranzacționare de pe Wall Street a săptămânii.

Graficul BTC/USD pe o oră. Sursa: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Solana’s (SOL) MACD indicator sent a “buy” signal on its weekly chart, an occurrence that has historically preceded parabolic rallies.

Key takeaways:

Solana’s MACD indicator sent a “buy” signal that has led to a 100%-860% SOL price rallies in the past.

Solana’s price chart’s symmetrical triangle targets $130.

Solana’s MACD forecasts a “powerful move” in SOL price

Solana’s weekly chart showed that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator flashed a bullish signal when the MACD line (blue) crossed above the signal line (orange).

The MACD is a popular momentum indicator used in technical analysis that helps traders identify the strength, direction, and duration of a trend in an asset’s price.

The last time the indicator sent the “buy” signal was in May 2025, preceding a 100% rally above $250 reached on Sept. 18, 2025, from just around $125. The SOL/USD gains were 860% in 2023 and 617% in 2021.

SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Meanwhile, the relative strength index, or RSI, is at levels that marked Solana’s bear market bottom in 2022, preceding a 2,500% run to $210 in March 2024, from areas below $10 in December 2022.

The RSI has now recovered to 35 from 25 in mid-February. When combined with a buy signal on the MACD, the picture begins to resemble previous cycles.

“Over the last four weeks, Solana’s RSI has finally reached sub-35 levels for the first time in 1,200 days,” analyst Tyler Hill said in a recent video posted on X, adding:

“When we were here the last time, it marked the bottom of the bear market for Solana and we saw its price rally over 3,000%.”

Fellow analyst Sixtysecondalpha said that the MACD cross after its “lowest stretch ever” and the bullish divergence from the RSI meant that SOL price is ready for its “most powerful move” in two years.

SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Sixtysecondalpha

Other SOL price analysts said that the altcoin’s market setup suggested that Solana’s macro bottom is in, paving the way for a continued recovery to new highs. 

Solana’s symmetrical triangle targets $130 SOL price 

Solana’s price action has formed a classic symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, as shown below. 

The pattern will resolve once the SOL/USD pair breaks above the triangle’s resistance line at $90. If this happens, the price could rise by as much as the maximum distance between the triangle’s trend lines.

That puts SOL’s breakout target at about $130, up by more than 50.5% from current price levels.

SOL/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The daily RSI has increased to 52, from oversold conditions at 11 on Feb. 6, suggesting increasing upward momentum.

However, the breakout could be curtailed by resistance from the $90-$96 resistance zone, where the 100-day moving averages converge.

According to Solana’s cost basis distribution data, there is a large supply overhang above the spot price, with investors holding approximately 9.9 million SOL at an average cost of $90-$92, creating a potential resistance zone.

This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling SOL’s rally.

Solana cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode

As Cointelegraph reported, Solana’s immediate resistance is at $91, which bulls are required to flip into support to confirm the trend change.

Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto announced on Friday an actively managed Bitcoin derivatives program designed to generate recurring income from volatility while hedging part of its downside exposure.

Nakamoto said the program has been in place since the first quarter of 2026 and uses a portion of the company’s Bitcoin holdings as collateral for a derivatives strategy managed by Bitwise Asset Management in a separately managed account.

Under the arrangement, a portion of the company’s Bitcoin is held in Kraken’s qualified custody solution and used as collateral for a derivatives strategy managed by Bitwise Asset Management in a separately managed account.

The move highlights how Bitcoin treasury firms are looking for new ways to manage balance sheet risk as prolonged price weakness puts pressure on companies holding large crypto reserves.

“Bitcoin's implied volatility is one of the most persistently mispriced assets in capital markets,” wrote Tyler Evans, chief investment officer of Nakamoto and UTXO Management, adding that the new framework seeks to “harvest that premium systematically, at scale, and convert that opportunity into long-term value for shareholders.” 

Bitcoin is down around 38% from its all-time high of $126,198 set in October 2025 and traded at $78,151 at the time of writing, TradingView data shows.

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Nakamoto's share price traded at $0.22 at the time of writing, down around 4.5% since the market open, with the company's price down by around 46% year-to-date, according to Yahoo Finance.

Bitcoin treasury firms pressured by Bitcoin’s downturn

The new derivatives program adds another tool for treasury companies seeking to avoid outright sales while still generating cash flow or reducing downside risk during periods of market volatility.

Nakamoto is the largest Bitcoin treasury company to publicly disclose selling part of its holdings this year. The company announced a sale of 284 Bitcoin (worth about $20 million at the time) in a March 30 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Nakamoto is the 20th-largest Bitcoin treasury firm and currently holds 5,098 BTC worth about $395 million, according to Bitcointreasuries data.

Nakamoto INC, Bitcoin holdings over time, 1-year chart. Source: Bitcointreasuries.net

Treasury company Genius Group announced the liquidation of its entire treasury holdings of 84 BTC for about $5.7 million in February, which it used to repay an $8.5 million debt obligation, according to an SEC filing.

Days later, Bitcoin treasury management company Empery Digital said it had sold 357.7 BTC at an average price of $66,632, generating about $24.7 million in gross proceeds.

Magazine: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1M

South Africa’s National Treasury has published draft rules that would bring cryptocurrency transactions under the country’s capital flow regime, requiring some holders to declare digital asset holdings and routing certain transactions through authorized providers or Treasury-approved channels.

Published on April 17, the draft Capital Flow Management Regulations bill proposes that crypto holders above a yet-unspecified threshold would be required to declare investments to the treasury within 30 days. In some cases, crypto acquired through an authorized provider for a stated purpose would have to be offered for sale if it was no longer needed for that purpose.

The draft is open for public comment until May 18 and would replace South Africa’s Exchange Control Regulations of 1961, marking the most significant overhaul of the country’s exchange control framework in decades.

The proposal would also limit certain crypto transactions above the threshold to authorized crypto asset service providers or require prior permission from the National Treasury or an authorized person. It would also criminalize cross-border Bitcoin transactions executed without permission and force travelers to declare their crypto holdings during border crossing.

Those caught breaching these rules may face fines of up to 1,000,000 South African rand (around $60,000) and prison terms of up to five years.

Draft Capital Flow Management Regulations of 2026. Source: Treasury.gov.za

Cryptocurrencies are currently regulated by the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, after the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa declared crypto to be a financial product in 2022.

Crypto investors may be forced to declare holdings at the border

Under the new draft, every person leaving South Africa would be requested to declare crypto asset possessions intended to be removed from the country or held by the person.

Draft Capital Flow Management Regulations of 2026. Source: Treasury.gov.za

An “enforcement officer” would search any article in a person’s possession or under their control, “for the purpose of ascertaining whether the person possesses or has control of any currency, crypto assets,” meaning that they could theoretically force holders to share their seed phrases and show their digital asset balance. 

The draft bill's short window for public feedback is “not enough time for changes of this magnitude,” according to Carel van Wyk, the founder of Bitcoin payment company MoneyBadger. He wrote in a Wednesday LinkedIn post:

“It introduces compulsory purchase powers over declared crypto, and restricts person-to-person transactions above a threshold.” 

The draft would also “limit cross-border crypto transactions to a new category of specially authorised service providers,” he added.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘narrative vacuum,’ Ethereum now inevitable: Trade Secrets

Strategy’s MSTR stock has jumped roughly 25% over the past month, outperforming Bitcoin’s circa 9% gain and reviving a historical signal that has often appeared near BTC cycle bottoms.

MSTR vs. BTC/USD one-month price performance. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

Historically, a sustained MSTR outperformance versus Bitcoin has preceded the latter’s bear market bottom.

Strategy’s stock looks poised to grow 50% in the coming months.

What does it mean when MSTR outperforms BTC?

MSTR has often risen two to three times more than BTC during bull cycles. In the 2022-2024 bull market, for instance, MSTR rose by around 4,000% versus Bitcoin’s circa 550% gain.

MSTR vs. BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

That outperformance shows traders are taking on more risk. Instead of buying BTC directly, they are willing to pay a premium for Strategy stock, which offers leveraged exposure to Bitcoin through the company’s massive treasury holdings.

In other words, traders are positioning for a higher-risk, higher-reward recovery phase. This could also be a sign that the market believes the worst of the drawdown is over.

Is Bitcoin bottoming out?

Historical patterns since 2020 show that Bitcoin often finds its cycle low after MSTR starts outperforming BTC following a strong downtrend.

In 2022, for instance, the MSTR/BTC ratio rose 155% in the six months after bottoming in May, even as Bitcoin fell another 58.8%. BTC finally bottomed in November 2022, while MSTR was already in its outperformance phase.

MSTR vs. BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

The current setup is starting to resemble the early stages of that 2022 fractal.

The MSTR/BTC ratio has jumped by around 30% after forming a local bottom in January 2026. BTC’s price has dipped by 39.25% in the same period.

For the signal to fully align with past cycles, the MSTR/BTC ratio would need to establish a stronger uptrend, marked by consistent higher highs and continued MSTR outperformance over the next few weeks.

MSTR eyes 50% breakout

MSTR appears to be forming an ascending triangle on the 3-day chart, a pattern typically associated with bullish continuation.

The structure shows rising higher lows pressing against a horizontal resistance zone near the $180–$200 range, indicating growing buying pressure.

MSTR three-day chart. Source: TradingView

A decisive breakout above this ceiling may send the price toward the measured upside target of over $260, up around 50% from the current price, by June or July.

This level is closer to the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $269, with further upside toward the 0.5 Fib line at $320 if momentum strengthens.

On the downside, a breakdown below the rising trend line risks invalidating the setup and exposing the $120 support area.

China’s central bank and seven other regulators have finalized the “Administrative Measures for Online Marketing of Financial Products” (Announcement No. 9), dated April 21 and publicly released on April 24.

The rules take effect on Sept. 30, 2026, and confine online marketing of financial products to licensed financial institutions and lawfully entrusted third-party platforms, and prohibit any organization or individual from offering online marketing services or any other form of assistance that facilitates illegal financial activities.

The text explicitly folds virtual currency issuance and trading, along with illegal foreign exchange margin business, into the definition of illegal financial activity, reinforcing a stance first made explicit when the People’s Bank of China declared all crypto transactions illegal in 2021.

Officials frame the measures as consumer protection rules aimed at curbing misleading or aggressive online promotion, including livestream selling and viral campaigns around leveraged or opaque products, and warn that platforms, intermediaries and content creators may bear responsibility for facilitating or failing to curb such marketing.

The regulators include the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Intellectual Property Office, the Cyberspace Administration of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Administrative Measures for Online Marketing of Financial Products. Source: State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

China has already banned domestic crypto trading platforms and mining projects and barred financial institutions from providing crypto-related services, pushing most onshore activity out of the formal financial system.

The new regime tightens the perimeter by targeting the digital marketing layer, warning platforms, intermediaries and content creators that facilitating promotions for banned products can itself amount to participation in illegal finance.

Global regulators step up action against financial influencers

Other regulators are moving in parallel. Italy’s securities regulator CONSOB amplified a so-called “finfluencer” (financial influencer) factsheet from the European Securities and Markets Authority in January, warning that European Union investment recommendation and advertising rules fully apply to social media promotion of crypto and “get rich quick” products.

In Australia, the securities watchdog ASIC warned in March that Gen-Z investors increasingly rely on social media personalities and artificial intelligence tools for investment calls, citing survey data showing that about 23% of young investors hold crypto and that many trade based on online content they trust as credible.

Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has spearheaded a coordinated “week of action” starting April 20, with 17 global regulators, including Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), Australia’s ASIC and the United Arab Emirates' Capital Market Authority (CMA), focused on illegal financial influencers.

The FCA said the campaign led to three criminal proceedings in the UK, around 50 warning alerts, and 120 takedown requests to social media platforms hosting illegal finfluencer content.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) said Friday it has signed agreements with three European standards bodies to reuse existing open payment standards for digital euro transactions, as it seeks to reduce integration costs for banks, merchants and payment service providers. 

According to the ECB, the agreements with the European Card Payment Cooperation, Nexo standards and the Berlin Group will allow the ECB to use standards covering contactless tap-to-pay payments, merchant-to-payment-provider connections and alias-based payments, such as transactions using a mobile phone number.

The ECB said using existing open standards would minimize adoption costs for the market and help create a uniform digital euro user experience across the euro area. However, the standards agreements remain a cost-mitigation step, not confirmation that the digital euro will be cheap to implement.

An earlier ECB analysis reported by Reuters estimated that the digital euro could cost European Union banks between 4 billion euros and 6 billion euros over four years.

The agreements show that the ECB is trying to reduce one technical barrier to digital euro adoption. However, the move does not directly resolve the broader cost question facing banks that may still need to spend billions of euros preparing systems, staff and compliance processes for a possible launch.

The standards to be included. Source: ECB

ECB prepares technical layer ahead of pilot

The ECB said the agreements are intended to encourage early coordination among payment service providers, standardization bodies and other market participants before a possible digital euro launch.

The central bank said Europe currently lacks a universally available open standard supported across payment terminals and remains heavily dependent on proprietary standards owned by international card schemes and global digital wallets.

The standards push follows earlier signals that the ECB wants the digital euro’s technical framework clarified so banks and merchants can begin preparing their systems. On March 25, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said the central bank expected to announce key technical standards by the summer.

The ECB is also separately recruiting payment service providers for a 12-month digital euro pilot expected to start in the second half of 2027. On Feb. 18, the ECB said the pilot will involve a limited number of payment service providers, merchants and Eurosystem staff, with PSPs playing a central role in digital euro distribution.

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