Fed rate hikes - where will the market go? | 风控观澜客 on Binance Square

风控观澜客 · 2023-07-26T03:51:49.000Z

Hi everyone, I am Brother B. The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate tomorrow at 2 a.m. on July 27, 2023. The market currently generally believes that the interest rate will be raised by 0.25 to 5.25. #BTC fell slightly last night, digesting market expectations in advance. CPI has reached 3%, only 1 percentage point away from the Fed's target of 2%. Based on this factor, the market's dovish voices are slightly louder, and they also believe that this is the last rate hike in this round of interest rate hikes. But there is another indicator that we cannot ignore at this time, which is that the data on unemployment benefits received in the United States has increased a bit month-on-month recently. This shows that the job market is strong and corporate labor demand has not lowered the employment data due to interest rate hikes. This contradiction makes the Fed confused, so I think we need to further observe changes in the data. This will then determine the subsequent interest rate policy.

Hi everyone, I am Brother B.
Tomorrow at 2:00 a.m. on July 27, 2023, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate. The market generally believes that the interest rate will increase by 0.25 to 5.25.
Last night #BTC  fell slightly, digesting market expectations in advance.
CPI has reached 3%, only 1 percentage point away from the Fed's target of 2%. Based on this factor, the market's dovish voice is slightly louder, and it is also believed that this is the last rate hike in this round.
However, another indicator that we cannot ignore at this time is that the data on unemployment benefits in the United States has increased slightly on a month-on-month basis. This shows that the job market is strong and the demand for employment by enterprises has not been lowered by interest rate hikes. This contradiction is what makes the Federal Reserve confused, so I think it is necessary to further observe the changes in the data and then decide on the subsequent interest rate policy.
No matter how the data develops, we have seen the fact that #BTC  has doubled this year. The cryptocurrency market has always been an extremely sensitive market, whether it is good or bad.
So my opinion is:
A/The Fed is nearing the end of its interest rate hike, but we should not be blindly optimistic. What is certain is that the worst has passed from the perspective of US monetary policy.
B/ Next we will see whether the CPI data for next month can fall within the target range of 2%.
C/The more people who receive unemployment benefits, the better.
D/Binance and the SEC incident can have substantial benefits
If the above 4 points can be realized as soon as possible, the trend of the cryptocurrency market will be even better.
Except for a few mainstream currencies such as #BTC #ETH  that have shown a bullish trend, the majority of copycat currencies are in a bearish pattern and have not completely changed their trend.
If Bitcoin shows signs of stopping the decline when it returns to 25,000-27,000, I will choose to enter the market with a long contract. The technical operation is consistent with the idea of ​#arbreleased yesterday.
Based on my understanding of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, all of the spot products I hold are copycat products. Although the current profit is in a floating loss state, I am firmly optimistic about the future market.
Finally, as usual, I attach my latest holding chart: #BNB  Holding position 20 days