Concluzie principală: Prețul de oprire al minelor BTC de mainstream din 2026 (0,08 dolari/kWh) este ancorat între 69.000 și 74.000 de dolari.

Sub influența instituționalizării industriei + iterația puterii de calcul, deviația fundului pieței de oprire se va restrânge suplimentar la 5%-10%. Intervalul estimat pentru acest fund este de 55.000-70.000 de dolari, iar suportul de fund este mai „solid”.

Verificarea regulilor istorice arată că fundul pieței medii va depăși temporar linia de cost a minelor de mainstream. După curățarea puterii de calcul + reducerea dificultății, prețul se va întoarce la prețul de oprire, iar prețul absolut al fundului va continua să crească pe măsură ce industria se maturizează.

1. Prețul de oprire actual al minelor BTC (februarie 2026)

Folosind un preț de 0,08 dolari/kWh și o rată de comision de 5% pentru pool-uri ca bază de calcul (preț de oprire = (consumul zilnic de energie al minerului × prețul energiei) ÷ (producția zilnică de BTC × 95%)), minerii din întreaga rețea formează o ierarhie clară de costuri în funcție de eficiență, iar puterea de calcul se concentrează în intervalul critic de oprire:

1. High-end new models (Ant S23 Hyd/U3S23H): Shutdown price 44,000 USD, currently in profit, with the best resilience in the network;

2. Mainstream computing power main force (Ant S21 series): Shutdown price 69,000-74,000 USD, accounting for the majority of overall computing power, at a critical shutdown node;

3. Mid-to-high-end old models (God M60S/Ant S19 XP+ Hydro etc.): Shutdown price 75,000-80,000 USD, already slightly losing, close to shutdown;

4. Old models (Ant S19 Standard Edition): Shutdown price 85,000 USD, deeply losing, has largely stopped operating.

Core feature: Shutdown price is not a fixed value, but dynamically adjusted according to the overall network computing power difficulty, electricity costs, and BTC block rewards. After halving, the block reward will be cut in half, which will significantly push the shutdown price up.

Two, three rounds of cycles: Historical evolution rules of bear market bottom and shutdown price

The two rounds of bear markets in 2018 and 2022 verified the core logic of 'shutdown price as the core cost anchor, bottom breaking through the cost line, deviation narrowing as the industry matures', with specific characteristics and differences as follows:

2018 Bear Market (bottom 3200 USD)

Mainstream mining machines (S9) shutdown price is about 4,000 USD, the bottom is 20% lower than the shutdown price, sustained for 2-3 months; at that time, the industry was mainly retail, high-cost miners concentrated on clearance, overall network computing power plummeted, until the difficulty was significantly adjusted, and the price stabilized to form a bottom, the bottom grinding cycle was lengthy.

2022 Bear Market (bottom 15500 USD)

Mainstream mining machines (S19 series) shutdown price is about 18,000 USD, the bottom is 14% lower than the shutdown price, the deviation has narrowed by 6 percentage points compared to 2018; the proportion of institutional miners has increased, the computing power reduction is more moderate, and after the difficulty adjustment, the price quickly returns to the shutdown price, the efficiency of the bottom rebound has significantly improved.

2026 Cycle (Projected Bottom 55,000-70,000 USD)

Mainstream mining machines (S21 series) shutdown price 69,000-74,000 USD, the bottom is expected to be lower than the shutdown price by 5%-10%, the deviation further narrows; the degree of industry institutionalization deepens, computing power iteration accelerates, combined with institutional capital support, the computing power reduction will be smoother, the bottom support is stronger, and the bottom grinding cycle may be further shortened.

Commonality and core trends

1. Commonality: The bear market bottom must temporarily break through the current mainstream mining machine shutdown price, triggering a closed loop of 'high-cost mining machine clearance → computing power decline → difficulty adjustment → shutdown price drop → new support formation';

2. Trend: With the iteration of computing power, institutionalization of miners, and regional differentiation of electricity prices, the deviation of the bottom from the shutdown price continues to narrow (20% → 14% → 5%-10%), and the absolute price of the bear market bottom shows a stepped upward trend (3200 USD → 15500 USD → 55,000-70,000 USD).

Three, the core logic of shutdown price and bear market bottom

1. The shutdown price is the core line of computing power support, not an absolute iron bottom: short-term market sentiment and liquidity shocks may lead to a significant breakdown of the shutdown price, but this state is not sustainable. Continuous breakdown will trigger passive shrinkage of overall network computing power, forming upward repair momentum for prices;

2. The three steps to form the bear market bottom: price breaks through the shutdown price of mainstream mining machines → high-cost low-efficiency mining machines shut down in bulk, computing power clearance → overall computing power difficulty adjustment + miners reluctant to sell + institutional bottom-fishing capital entering → price hits bottom and rebounds, completing the bottom formation;

3. The mining machine tier determines the price support gradient: the shutdown price of high-end new models constitutes the ultimate support of the bear market, the shutdown price of mainstream computing power models is the core support, and the shutdown price of old models is the weak support in the early stage. The rhythm of computing power clearance matches the height of the mining machine tier.

Four, key memory points

1. Cost line rules: The shutdown price is the core cost anchor of BTC bear market, the bottom must break through, deviation must narrow, and price must rise;

2. Differences between the three-round cycle: 2018 'deep drop and slow grind', 2022 'shallow drop and quick rebound', 2026 'slight drop and steady support';

3. 2026 Core Judgment: 69,000-74,000 USD is the current core support for computing power, 55,000-70,000 USD is the core range of the bear market bottom, breaking through will lead to a rapid return to cost line due to computing power clearance + institutional support.

The overall weighted average shutdown price is 72,000 USD, based on this it also conforms to the above calculation. The more panic there is, the more clever one needs to be; perhaps it is not as bad as everyone imagines!

Bitcoin may form a price bottom near the previous cycle peak, around the 60,000 USD range, with the timing possibly falling in the first half of 2026, and then gradually establishing a more solid price support range.

Currently, the market weakness is more likely to be a correction approaching the end, rather than the starting point of a new prolonged crypto winter.

Although short-term volatility is still unavoidable, if a reversal occurs in 2026 as expected, it may open what Bitcoin calls 'the most critical cycle', its impact may even surpass traditional four-year market cycles.