Portuguese authorities are preparing to block access to Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform, following concerns over suspicious betting activity linked to the country’s presidential election.
The action comes amid the growing popularity of prediction markets, where users place bets on outcomes across sports, politics, and crypto-related events. However, political betting remains a restricted activity under Portuguese law, placing Polymarket under direct regulatory scrutiny.
Regulators Say Platform Operates Illegally
According to Portuguese media outlet Renascença, the Gambling Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) has confirmed that Polymarket is operating illegally within Portugal. National regulations explicitly prohibit betting on political events, regardless of whether the platform is centralized or blockchain-based.
The regulator reportedly issued a formal notice to Polymarket on Friday, granting the platform 48 hours to cease operations within the country. Despite the warning, the platform reportedly remained accessible to Portuguese users as of Monday. As a result, authorities are now moving toward requesting internet service providers (ISPs) to block access to the site.
Suspicious Market Activity Raises Concerns
Regulatory attention intensified after unusually large volumes of wagers were placed on the Portuguese presidential election shortly before polling stations closed. Reports indicate that more than €4 million was bet in the final hours leading up to the release of official results.
Overall trading volume on the main presidential market has now surpassed $120 million, making it one of Polymarket’s most active political markets to date.
During this period, market probabilities shifted rapidly in favor of António José Seguro, well ahead of official projections. Data shows that his implied probability of victory rose from approximately 60% in the morning to over 90% by early evening, eventually reaching near certainty as television networks began publishing their forecasts.
Questions Over Information Asymmetry
The sudden and dramatic movement in odds has fueled speculation that some market participants may have had access to non-public information, such as early exit polls or internal projections. While no formal accusations have been made, regulators are examining whether information asymmetry played a role in the late-stage surge of betting activity.
Authorities have emphasized that the investigation focuses on regulatory compliance and market integrity, rather than drawing conclusions about individual traders at this stage.
Broader Implications for Prediction Markets
The situation highlights the growing regulatory challenges facing crypto-based prediction markets, particularly as they expand into politically sensitive areas. While these platforms promote themselves as tools for crowd-sourced forecasting, their legal status varies significantly by jurisdiction.
Portugal’s move may serve as a precedent for how other European regulators address political betting conducted through decentralized or crypto-native platforms.
Disclaimer:
This article is provided for informational purposes only and reflects personal analysis. It does not constitute investment or legal advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult appropriate sources before making any decisions.
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