Glassnode: Bitcoin’s NUPL Collapses Toward “Hope/Fear” Zone — What That Means for BTC On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has plunged to roughly 0.18, signaling a meaningful drop in aggregate investor profitability on the network. What NUPL measures NUPL compares unrealized profits and losses across all BTC holders. For each coin, the metric looks at the price of the last on-chain transfer as that coin’s cost basis; if that prior price is below today’s spot price the coin is considered to be in profit, and above it means the coin is underwater. The difference between those prices gives the unrealized profit or loss per coin, and NUPL aggregates those values across the supply and normalizes the result by market capitalization to show net profit or loss relative to total market value. Recent trend and context Glassnode’s multi-year chart shows NUPL surged above 0.5 during the 2024–2025 rallies — a sign that unrealized profits were substantial, amounting to more than half of BTC’s market cap. Those euphoric phases were followed by pullbacks that pushed NUPL into the 0.25–0.5 band. While BTC recovered from earlier dips, the most recent decline has persisted, driving NUPL down to the current ~0.18 level. Why 0.18 matters A NUPL around 0.18 still indicates the majority of coins are in profit, but the margin is thin compared with the highs. Glassnode places this reading inside its “hope/fear” regime, a zone characterized by reactive market behavior: rallies often encounter selling pressure, and downside can extend as investor conviction fades. In short, the market is less euphoric and more easily unsettled. Historical precedent The last time NUPL fell decisively into this kind of low-conviction territory was during the 2022 bear market, when the metric slid through the hope/fear band and into “extreme fear” below zero — a condition where most holders were sitting on net losses. Whether BTC will remain in the 0.18 range, recover, or slide further remains to be seen. Price action Bitcoin dipped to about $65,000 on Thursday before bouncing back to roughly $69,000 on Friday, reflecting the same short-term volatility that the NUPL reading implies. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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