Bitcoin has been trending upward since hitting a local low below $25,000 on September 11. It rose to $27,435 yesterday, up 10% from the recent low. The rally was mainly driven by the futures market and a sharp increase in open interest of more than $1 billion, more than half of which was closed when BTC fell back below $27,000. Despite this, BTC is still up about 7.5% from last week's low. Bullish case?
Market confidence remains low
A deep dive into the realm of market confidence. A closer look at the difference between the cost basis of two investor subgroups (spenders and holders) reveals current market sentiment. In mid-August, as the market reeled from the price crash from $29,000 to $26,000, overwhelming negative sentiment was evident. This manifested itself as spenders’ cost basis falling significantly below holders’ cost basis, a clear sign of widespread market panic.
To provide a clearer visualization, Glassnode has normalized the metric based on spot prices. An important observation is the cyclical nature of negative sentiment during bear market recovery phases, which typically last 1.5 to 3.5 months. The market recently fell into its first negative sentiment phase since the end of 2022.
Currently, the trend is 20 days old, and if history repeats itself, it could mean that the recent rally is not over yet. However, a sustained rally into positive territory could indicate renewed capital inflows, meaning Bitcoin holders are back in a more favorable position.
In summary, Glassnode's on-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin market is currently in a state of Flux. Although new capital has entered the market in 2023, the influx is insufficient. Market sentiment, especially that of short-term holders, is clearly bearish. These findings suggest that caution remains the watchword, and underlying market sentiment provides mixed signals about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally.
Four key points to watch closely at this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting
It is highly unlikely that interest rates will be raised again, but the Fed officials' outlook on the US economic and interest rate outlook will be the focus.
1: Will the Federal Reserve maintain its forecast of four rate cuts in 2024?
2: How many Federal Reserve officials believe that interest rates have reached their peak? There were 18 officials at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and one-third of them believed that interest rates had reached their peak in June.
3: What are the changes in the Fed’s economic forecasts?
4: Will the Fed’s forecast for the neutral interest rate start to move higher?
Bear market layout, bull market long-term focus on SSV
SSV belongs to the L0 infrastructure of the DVT track. Its competitor, obol, has not yet issued a coin. Currently, SSV is a leading application.
The well-known LDO, ROCKET and FRAX belong to the L1 application of the LSDFI ecosystem. The total amount of SSV is 11 million, and it is basically in full circulation at present. The story will continue in the future. The current market value of Ethereum is 196 billion US dollars, and the market value of SSV is about 180 million US dollars. In the next bull market, Ethereum will increase fivefold, and the total market value will reach 980 billion US dollars. The total market value of SSV is 11 billion US dollars, which is not too much. The Ethereum Foundation also holds the private key of the SSV community.
Personally, I am more optimistic about SSV for the following reasons:
First: SSV is recognized by the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik Buterin
Second: SSV can make Ethereum more decentralized
Third: SSV has stronger growth potential than LDO and rocket
Talk about the current situation of SSV:
The testnet is currently in the second phase and is about to start the third phase. The mainnet will be opened at the end of 2023, when a brand new blockchain staking system will be officially launched.
In summary, with the launch of the mainnet, SSV can also become a decentralized staking system for other public chains, with huge development potential.
Altcoins
From the recent trend of several coins, we can see that DWF's trading method is to violently pull the price, and then sell when there is enough buying power. In the end, the price almost returns to the level before the pull. In addition to DWF and other dog dealers,
It is actually quite difficult for small retail investors to make money.
However, this trading method can indeed make everyone see some opportunities to make money. For example, as long as you are not greedy, you can realize stable profits by running away when it rises by 5%. However, human desires are beyond imagination. Unless you are a top programmer or a robot, it is difficult to know when to stop and buy low and sell high. Especially in the current bear market, you may be trapped for a lifetime if you are not careful. So although there is nothing to play in the market now, I still do not recommend that you touch this kind of controlled copycat. Don't mess around in the bear market. Save your bullets and wait for the bull market to come.
(The fake dog market has no moral principles. They will smash the price down as it goes up. Retail investors must remember to lock in profits. The trend has not yet formed, so it is better to enter and exit quickly, especially for fake market. Don’t be greedy.)
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