cryptobearcycle

Has Bitcoin’s Bearish Divergence Signaled the Start of a New Bear Cycle?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been under intense pressure over the past 4 weeks following its All-Time High on October 6. It’s currently fighting to hold the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as support—a level that has been a key long-term buy zone throughout this Bull Cycle since March 2023.

But has the Bull Cycle already ended? Possibly. The 1W RSI has been showing a clear bearish pattern (Lower Highs trend-line) while completing the typical 4-year cycle observed in previous Bull Cycles. This forms a significant Bearish Divergence, where price continues to make Higher Highs, but RSI fails to follow, signaling trend exhaustion.

Historically, similar RSI Lower Highs patterns preceded the cycle tops in November 2021, December 2017, and December 2013. Currently, the trend-line has been forming since the March 11, 2024 high. If BTC closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA50, it would likely confirm the start of a new Bear Cycle, consistent with past cycles.

How Low Could It Go?

For long-term investors looking to DCA, there are three potential bottom levels based on historical Bear Cycles:

1. $58,000 – Around the 0.382 Fib and contact with the 1W MA200.


2. $45,000 – Near the 0.5 Fib level, slightly below the 1W MA200, similar to past cycles.


3. $35,000 – Around the 0.618 Fib, representing a potential strong bottom, roughly -70.76% from the ATH.



If the new Bear Cycle is underway, these levels could serve as key opportunities for accumulation.

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