bitcoinetfs

The market is screaming, but the data is whispering a very specific story. If you are only watching the price ticker, you are missing 50% of the equation.

​To master Bitcoin $BTC , you must track it on two axes: TIME + PRICE.

​Most retail traders get front-run because they ignore the clock. Here is my proprietary framework for the 2024-2026 cycle.

​1. The TIME Axis: The Historical Rhythm

​Price can be manipulated by liquidations, but time remains constant. If we analyze the days from the All-Time High (ATH) to the Cycle Low after every halving, a mathematical pattern emerges:

​2012 Cycle: 406 Days to bottom
​2016 Cycle: 363 Days to bottom
​2020 Cycle: 376 Days to bottom
​2024 Cycle: Currently unfolding.

​The Projection: If the historical mean holds, the highest probability window for the "Absolute Bottom" is October to November 2026. This is my Time Target. When this window opens, I buy aggressively—regardless of what the chart looks like. Time is how you avoid the "Value Trap."

​2. The PRICE Axis: Value vs. Vanity

​While the time window is my primary trigger, price provides the secondary confirmation.

​Back in October, when BTC was trading at $114,000, I publicly forecasted a return to the $60,000 range. The "moon-boys" laughed. Today, that forecast is a reality.

​My Execution Strategy:

​The Value Zone: I have already initiated accumulation since we entered the $60,000 zone. * The Capitulation Target: I am eyeing the $45,000 - $50,000 range as the ultimate bottom. This is where I go heavy.

​Waiting for the "perfect" dollar amount is how you get left at the station. If the price offers value, I buy. If the time hits the window, I buy. It is that simple.

​3. The Final Confirmation: NUPL On-Chain Data

​I don’t trade on feelings; I trade on signatures. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator is the "holy grail" of cycle bottoms. It accurately flagged:

​The 2018 Bottom
​The 2020 COVID Crash
​The 2022 Post-FTX Low

​Current Reading: We have not entered the "Capitulation Blue Zone" yet. We are still significantly above it. This suggests that while the $60k range is good value, the real pain—the kind that creates millionaires—is likely still ahead of us in late 2026.

​The Verdict:

​The market is currently messy, but this is merely the "boring" phase before the generational wealth phase.

​Below $60,000: Systematic daily buys of $500k.
​Oct-Nov 2026: Maximum execution window.

​I’ve spent 10 years studying Macro. I called the October ATH, and I’m calling this correction now. Stick to the plan. Ignore the noise.

​Follow and turn on notifications. I will post the final warning before it hits the mainstream headlines. 🔔

​#BTC #CryptoSt #BitcoinETFs #MacroEconom #MarketUpdate

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded significant outflows on February 12, signaling renewed institutional caution across the crypto market.

Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin ETFs saw - $410.2 million in net outflows.Ethereum ETFs followed with - $113.1 million in withdrawals.Solana ETFs recorded a modest $2.7 million inflow, standing out positively.XRP spot ETFs posted - $6.42 million in net outflows.
Combined net outflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs came in at - $410.2 million, marking one of the larger single-day withdrawals this month.
Bitcoin ETF Flows
The bulk of the pressure was concentrated in major products. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $157.6 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $104.1 million. Grayscale’s GBTC recorded a $59.1 million decline, and ARK’s ARKB shed $31.5 million. Smaller products also contributed modest negative flows, reinforcing the broad-based nature of the pullback.
The scale of withdrawals indicates that large-cap crypto exposure remains sensitive to macro positioning and broader market sentiment.
Ethereum ETF Flows
Ethereum ETFs followed a similar trajectory, posting total net outflows of - $113.1 million for the session. BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH led withdrawals with $29.0 million and $43.5 million respectively, while Grayscale’s ETHE recorded an additional $13.4 million in outflows.
The consistent red trend suggests investors remain cautious on ETH positioning despite recent structural developments in the ecosystem.
Solana ETF Flows
Solana ETFs diverged from the broader trend, recording a modest $2.7 million net inflow. Bitwise’s BSOL contributed $2.1 million, with smaller positive allocations across other issuers.
Although relatively small in size, the inflow stands out given the broader negative tone across Bitcoin and Ethereum products.
XRP ETF Flows
XRP spot ETFs posted a net - $6.42 million outflow. While Canary and Franklin products saw inflows of $1.44 million and $737,470 respectively, Grayscale’s GXRP experienced a sharp $8.91 million withdrawal, tipping the daily balance negative.
Mixed flows suggest selective positioning rather than broad accumulation in XRP-related products.
Overall, the session reflects a defensive tilt among institutional participants. While ETF flows can shift quickly, the magnitude of Bitcoin and Ethereum outflows highlights continued sensitivity to macro developments and market structure dynamics across digital assets.
#BitcoinETFs #EthereumETF

The cryptocurrency market is holding its breath as Bitcoin, the undisputed king, navigates a critical juncture. After a stellar Q1 2024, propelled by the historic spot ETF approvals, BTC has entered a phase of consolidation and heightened volatility. This article dives deep into the on-chain data, technical indicators, and macroeconomic whispers to paint a clear picture of where Bitcoin might be headed next.
The Current Landscape: Between ETF Flows and Macro Headwinds
The dominant narrative remains the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since launch, they have accumulated over 500,000 BTC, representing a massive, sustained demand shock. However, recent weeks have seen notable fluctuations in daily flows, including periods of net outflows. This indicates a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and profit-taking/risk-off sentiment.

Simultaneously, macroeconomic pressures are mounting. Stubborn inflation data has pushed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts further into the future. Higher-for-longer interest rates strengthen the US Dollar (DXY), creating a classic headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market is currently balancing these two powerful, opposing forces.
Deep Dive: The Data Telling the Story
1. On-Chain Analysis: Holder Conviction & Market Health
Realized Price & MVRV Ratio: The market-wide realized price (the average price at which all coins last moved) sits around $25,000. Bitcoin trading significantly above this level indicates the majority of holders are in profit. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, currently above 2, suggests the market is in a profit zone but not yet at the extreme greed levels seen at past cycle tops (>3.5).
Supply Dynamics:
Long-Term Holders (LTHs): The percentage of supply held by entities for over 155 days remains near all-time highs (~75%). This cohort is notoriously resilient, often refusing to sell even during 30-40% corrections. Their steadfastness is a bedrock of support.
Exchange Reserves: BTC balances on centralized exchanges continue a multi-year downtrend, recently hitting 5-year lows. This signifies a supply squeeze—fewer coins are readily available for sale, amplifying the impact of new demand.
2. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
The Macro Range: BTC is currently oscillating within a large consolidation rectangle between $59,000 (major support) and $74,000 (all-time high resistance). This is healthy price action after a parabolic advance, allowing the market to re-accumulate.
Critical Support Zone: The band between $59,000 - $61,500 is absolutely crucial. This aligns with:
The 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the Q1 rally.The short-term holder realized price (their aggregate cost basis).High volume nodes on the Volume Profile indicator.A decisive weekly close below $59,000 could signal a deeper correction towards $52,000-$54,000.
Momentum Indicators:
Weekly RSI: Has cooled from overbought (>80) to a neutral range (~55). This resets the momentum for a potential next leg up.Daily 200EMA: Currently near $52,000 and rising. This has acted as a bull market support line throughout this cycle.
Forward-Looking Prediction: The Path Ahead
Based on the synthesis of the above data, we can outline two primary scenarios for the coming 3-6 months:
Scenario 1: Bullish Resolution (Probability: 60%)
Path: Bitcoin continues to base and build energy within the $59k-$74k range for several more weeks. Positive ETF flow momentum returns, coinciding with a softening of DXY strength or clearer Fed dovish signals.Trigger: A weekly close above $74,000 on significant volume.Target: Such a breakout would likely ignite the next parabolic phase of the bull market, with initial targets at $85,000, followed by a run towards $100,000 - $120,000 by Q4 2024/Q1 2025. The underlying supply dryness from HODLing and ETF accumulation could make this move sharper than many expect.
Scenario 2: Deeper Correction (Probability: 40%)
Path: Persistent macro fears (recession, hawkish Fed) trigger sustained ETF outflows. The $59,000 support level fails to hold.Trigger: A weekly close below $58,500.Target: This would likely lead to a flush towards the next major support cluster between $52,000 - $54,500 (200EMA, 0.786 Fib, long-term holder cost basis). This would be a high-value buying zone for the remaining bull cycle, potentially shaking out weak leverage before a stronger foundation is built.
Conclusion: The Verdict
The weight of evidence still leans bullish for the medium to long term. The structural demand from ETFs, the unprecedented supply illiquidity due to HODLing, and the impending Bitcoin halving (already priced in to a large degree, but a fundamental supply shock) create a potent bullish cocktail.
However, the short-term path is dictated by macro. Traders should respect the $59,000 - $74,000 range until a clear breakout occurs. The market is undergoing a necessary maturation process, shifting from speculative froth to institutional-led demand.
Final Word: This is not the time for maximal leverage or panic. It is a time for strategic accumulation at key supports, patience, and a focus on the long-term horizon. The data suggests we are still in the middle chapters of this bull market, not the final page.
#bitcoin #Binance #squarecreator #BinanceSquare #BitcoinETFs
$BTC
$ETH

2009–2012: Bitcoin a fost creat în 2009 de Satoshi Nakamoto ca o monedă digitală descentralizată. În primii ani, a avut aproape nicio valoare monetară și a fost folosit în principal de entuziaștii tehnologiei. Celebrul achiziție de pizza de 10.000 BTC din 2010 a marcat prima sa tranzacție reală, arătându-și potențialul ca bani digitali.
2013–2016: Bitcoin a început să atragă atenția când prețul său a depășit 1.000 $ în 2013 pentru prima dată. Bursele s-au extins, mai mulți investitori au intrat pe piață, iar volatilitatea a devenit o caracteristică cheie. În ciuda corecțiilor majore și a atacurilor asupra burselor, Bitcoin a continuat să construiască încredere și infrastructură la nivel global.