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History shows Bitcoin’s rare down years have been followed by triple-digit rebounds, keeping 2026 firmly on traders’ watchlists.
Bitcoin
BTC
$90,965
ended 2025 slightly in the red with a -6.36% return after a strong start earlier in the year. While the annual loss appears modest, historical patterns suggest that down years have often preceded some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin has historically averaged close to 100% gains in the year following a down year.

Long-term models project a substantial target near $300,000 if liquidity conditions turn supportive.

Bitcoin history hints at upside after rare red years
According to Jesse Myers, Bitcoin Strategy Head at Smarter Web Company, Bitcoin has shown a consistent tendency to recover sharply after negative annual closes. Data from the past decade highlighted four down years: 2014, 2018, 2022, and, most recently, 2025.
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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Investment 101
Bitcoin's performance after a down year. Source: Jesse Myers/ X
The years immediately following those drawdowns delivered gains of 35%, 95%, and 156% respectively. Averaged together, these recoveries approach 95%, rounded to a 100% historical benchmark. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the repetition of this pattern continues to shape expectations for 2026.

Adding to the longer-term bullish case, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With noted that Bitcoin’s base-case valuation for 2026 sits between $200,000 and $300,000. With’s Bitcoin Decay Channel model uses quantile regression on historical price data to account for diminishing volatility across cycles.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Investment 101
Bitcoin Decay Channel. Source: Sminston With/X
With explained that the model’s oscillator remains near 20%, a level historically associated with early expansion phases. The projected 2026 target zone contrasts with Bitcoin’s stagnation near $88,000 at the end of 2025, which With attributed to delayed liquidity cycles rather than a definitive cycle peak.