comexupdate

Piețele sunt închise.
Reevaluarea nu este.
I. $84.52 Nu Este un Preț — Este un Timestamp
Argintul $XAG s-a închis vineri la $84.52 pe uncie, în creștere cu 7.77% într-o singură sesiune.
Asta nu este stabilitate.
Asta este deplasare.
Intervalul intraday:
$77.39 → $84.52.
O expansiune de $7 într-o zi de tranzacționare.
Aurul a crescut cu 2.22% la $5,115.90.
Dar argintul a performat dramatic.
Când argintul conduce aurul în magnitudine, rareori este entuziasm de retail.
Este poziționare.
Aceasta nu a fost zgomot.
A fost o schimbare în echilibru.
II. Riscul Mecanic: Gapa de Weekend

Ceea ce a fost conceput ca o scurgere coordonată s-a transformat într-o răsturnare structurală.
Argint
nu a cedat.
A absorbit — și apoi a reîmpărțit.
I. Configurarea: „Capcana SCOTUS”
Vineri dimineața (20 feb 2026), Curtea Supremă a SUA a decis 6–3 împotriva programului de tarife al administrației.
Pentru sistemele algoritmice, interpretarea a fost imediată:
Fără tarife → Așteptări de inflație mai mici → Vinde active dure.
Modelele de tranzacționare de înaltă frecvență au reacționat în câteva secunde.
O valvă de contracte de argint pe hârtie a lovit piața, conducând prețul de la aproape $80 la $79.80 în câteva minute.

20 Million Ounces $XAG Draining Monthly. A 26% Physical Premium. Delivery at 98%.
This is no longer a price story.
It is a liquidity story.
More precisely:
a physical liquidity story inside a system built on paper leverage.
Silver at COMEX is not behaving like a normal commodity market.
It is behaving like a warehouse under stress.
I. Registered Silver: The Structural Drawdown
Five months ago:
200 million ounces of registered (deliverable) silver.
As of February 19, 2026:
88.79 million ounces remain.
A decline of more than 55% in less than half a year.
Average monthly drain:
~20 million ounces.
That represents roughly 30% of global monthly mine production.
If this pace continues — and if March contracts are not sufficiently rolled — registered inventory could mathematically approach zero by March 6, 2026.
A futures exchange without deliverable inventory is not a volatility event.
It is a structural event.
II. The Paper Price vs. The Real Price
COMEX reference price: ~ $55/oz.
Meanwhile:
First Majestic reports realized silver prices of ~$69.74/oz.Hecla Mining reports realized prices of ~$69.28/oz.
Two companies.
Two jurisdictions.
Two independent audit systems.
Same number: ~ $69.
That implies a 26–30% premium over COMEX pricing.
Industrial buyers are paying roughly $14 more per ounce to secure metal directly from miners rather than rely on exchange delivery.
This is not a temporary dislocation.
It is the physical market establishing its own clearing price.
COMEX may still set the reference.
It no longer appears to set reality.
III. Market Distortions Accelerating
1. Delivery Rate: 98%
Normal historical range: 5–20%.
February 2026: 98%.
Nearly every contract holder is demanding physical settlement.
When participants prefer metal over cash at scale,
the system is no longer functioning as a hedging venue.
It is functioning as a stress point.

2. Backwardation
Spot and near-dated contracts are trading above deferred months.
In commodity markets, persistent backwardation signals immediate physical scarcity.
It reflects urgency.
It reflects preference for present metal over future promises.

3. The China Arbitrage Channel
Shanghai silver $XAG trades up to $18/oz above New York.
Result:
Physical metal flows from the U.S. to China.
And it does not return.
Arbitrage is not just price convergence.
It is inventory extraction.
IV. Policy Friction: The Emerging Price Floor
While bullion banks attempt to contain paper pricing, U.S. policy signals move in the opposite direction.
Senior officials have confirmed the development of sophisticated price-floor mechanisms for strategic minerals — including silver.
The objective is clear:
Encourage domestic investment.
Secure supply chains.
Strengthen national resilience.
Strategic metals are not incentivized by suppressed pricing.
This creates a structural tension between short positioning and national industrial policy.
V. Five Indicators Over the Next Five Trading Days
Ahead of first notice day:
Roll rate
If open interest does not decline materially, March delivery pressure intensifies.
Registered inventory below ~85 million ounces
Delivery optionality becomes constrained.
Deeper backwardation spreads
Signals escalating physical stress.
Margin hikes
Indicates exchange intervention to reduce long positioning.
Eligible inventory declining alongside registered
Escalates risk from tightness to system-wide constraint.
Conclusion
The paper silver $XAG market is running out of time.
The physical silver market has already repriced — around $69 per ounce.
Such divergences rarely persist indefinitely.
Either:
Paper prices adjust upward,
orDelivery mechanisms face intervention or technical failure.
In this environment, the primary risk is not volatility.
It is availability.
When a centralized exchange begins to lose deliverable credibility,
repricing becomes less about speculation
and more about system integrity.
Quietly.
But decisively.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#SilverDrain #Silver #COMEXUpdate

2025 nu a fost o repetiție.
A fost o schimbare de regim.
Aur $XAU nu a crescut doar — a explodat mai sus.
În creștere cu 55% într-un singur an.
Cincizeci și trei de maxime istorice.
Aproape o nouă înregistrare pe săptămână.
Cea mai puternică performanță anuală din 1979.
Și acum ne apropiem de 5.000 de dolari pe uncie.
Aceasta nu este o euforie de final de ciclu.
Este repricing în stadiu incipient.
1. Wall Street subestimează încă mișcarea
Bancile mari se ajustează — dar cu precauție.
Goldman Sachs vede 5.400 de dolari până la sfârșitul lui 2026, în timp ce admite deschis „un risc semnificativ de creștere.”

Piața de argint tocmai a trecut o limită.
Nu sentiment.
Nu speculație.
Politică.
Februarie 2026 ar putea fi amintită ca luna în care guvernul SUA a recunoscut liniștit ceea ce piața a negat timp de ani de zile:
Argintul este structural subevaluat — iar prețul pieței libere nu mai este de încredere.
Iată ce s-a schimbat.
1. Prețul minim al argintului din SUA este real
Conform rapoartelor confirmate de oficialii Departamentului de Stat al SUA, Washingtonul stabilește un mecanism de preț minim pentru minerale strategice — inclusiv argint.

This is no longer about price.
It is about delivery.
It is about control.
And it may become the day the Western paper silver system is exposed.
The global silver $XAG market is approaching a structural emergency — and February 27, 2026 could mark the inflection point.
1. The COMEX Delivery Crisis – A Mathematical Event
February 27 is the First Notice Day for March silver $XAG futures on COMEX.
This is when traders must choose:
Roll the contract,Close for cash,Or demand physical delivery.
Under normal conditions, this is procedural.
This time, it is existential.
Over 400 million ounces are tied to March contracts.
COMEX has only 98 million ounces of registered silver available for delivery.
For the first time since modern records began, registered inventory fell below the psychological 100-million-ounce threshold on February 11, 2026.
Withdrawals are accelerating — averaging roughly 785,000 ounces per day.
If just 25–50% of contract holders demand physical metal, the exchange simply cannot perform.
This is not speculation.
This is arithmetic.
2. Investors Are Abandoning Paper
Historically, only 3–5% of futures traders take delivery.
February 2026 shattered that norm.
Delivery demand surged to 98%.
Even more revealing: during the violent price collapse on January 30 — when silver plunged from $121 to $64 — 3.3 million ounces were still withdrawn from vaults.
That behavior does not belong to retail speculators.
It signals something deeper:
Large players no longer trust “paper price.”
They want metal in hand.
When capital chooses custody over leverage, the system is already under stress.

3. The East–West Resource Divide
The silver market is fragmenting into geopolitical blocs — North America, Europe, Asia.
And the metal is flowing East.
China now controls roughly 70% of global refined silver output and added silver to its export control list effective January 1, 2026.
Shanghai inventories have fallen to just 318 tons, while massive short positions — reportedly up to 450 tons — sit exposed.
That imbalance echoes the nickel short squeeze of 2022.
Meanwhile, corporate behavior is shifting.
Samsung recently secured an exclusive two-year offtake agreement for the full output of a Mexican silver mine — bypassing exchanges entirely.
When technology giants stop relying on centralized exchanges for supply, they are voting with capital.
And they are voting against the paper system.
4. Signs of Structural Stress
The January collapse was not a normal correction.
CME raised margin requirements to 9%, creating what many describe as an automatic liquidation machine — forcing long positions to unwind into falling prices.
At the exact bottom on January 30, JP Morgan reportedly stood for delivery of over 3 million ounces at distressed prices.
Liquidity crisis for some.
Inventory acquisition opportunity for others.
Regulatory contrast is equally telling:
The U.S. remained largely silent.China suspended five commodity funds and penalized hundreds of traders for naked short selling to stabilize its domestic market.
Two systems.
Two philosophies of control.
5. The Structural Deficit
The world is running a 40–50 million ounce monthly silver deficit.
Since 2021, cumulative shortages have reached approximately 820 million ounces.
That is not cyclical.
That is structural.
Silver $XAG is no longer just an investment asset.
It is an industrial necessity — solar, electronics, defense systems, AI infrastructure.
Deficits in strategic materials do not resolve quietly.
They reprice.
6. The Force Majeure Scenario
If COMEX cannot deliver on February 27, it may declare force majeure and settle contracts in cash.
Legally possible.
Psychologically catastrophic.
Cash settlement would confirm what many already suspect:
Paper silver is leverage.
Physical silver is reality.
In that scenario, the price outside the paper system could decouple violently.
If the gold-silver ratio compresses under stress, projections of $300–$400 silver move from fantasy to probability.
Final Assessment
February 27, 2026 is not just another contract cycle.
It is a stress test of the Western silver pricing mechanism.
Governments are stockpiling.
Technology corporations are locking in supply.
Eastern markets are tightening control.
Silver is no longer a trade.
It is a strategic resource in a global power contest.
And when the custodians of paper cannot deliver metal,
price discovery will not be negotiated —
it will be forced.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#COMEXUpdate #Silver #SilverDrain

$3,6 trilioane USD s-au evaporat în 90 de minute.
Mass-media o numește „corecție sănătoasă”.
Dar piețele interconectate și fluxurile materiale spun o poveste diferită:
Aceasta nu este volatilitate.
Aceasta este gestionarea riscurilor sistemice.
1. Când „Prețul” Nu Mai Este Preț
New York:
$75–76/oz
Shanghai:
$82/oz spot – $85/oz futures
Diferența ~10%.
În piața metalelor, aceasta nu este o diferență.
Aceasta este un semnal de ruptura a încrederii.

Februarie 2026.
În timp ce lumea este încă pe jumătate adormită, hipnotizată de acțiunile AI și narațiunile tehnologice, un tsunami financiar se formează în tăcere sub podeaua COMEX.
Un scenariu brutal începe să prindă contur:
Cea mai mare bursă de argint din lume este pe cale să rămână fără argint fizic.
.
Ignorați capetele vorbitoare lustruite de la TV. Ignorați narațiunile despre „inventarul bine gestionat”.
Numerele brute spun o poveste mult mai sumbră.
1. Iluzia „Inventarului”: 100 de pâini pentru 400 de oameni flămânzi.
COMEX listează în prezent doar 103 milioane de uncii de argint înregistrate disponibile pentru livrare.