For-Exx Kripto

Um risco maior para as ações dos EUA: o peso da dívida dos investimentos em IA
À medida que o recrudescimento da inflação nos Estados Unidos aumenta a pressão sobre os mercados acionários, um risco mais profundo no setor de tecnologia torna-se cada vez mais evidente. A crescente necessidade de recorrer a empréstimos para financiar investimentos em inteligência artificial, combinada com a alta das taxas de juros, está elevando os custos das empresas. A principal preocupação do mercado não é tanto se a demanda por IA continuará, mas sim quão sustentáveis são, de fato, os enormes investimentos feitos para atender a essa demanda.

Como as eleições de meio de mandato dos EUA afetarão os mercados? Um período decisivo para ações e setores
Com a aproximação das eleições de meio de mandato dos EUA, em 3 de novembro de 2026, os investidores começaram a avaliar o possível impacto da incerteza política sobre as ações, os títulos e diversos setores. Em meio às tensões geopolíticas, às perspectivas para a inflação e à política de juros do Fed, espera-se que as eleições aumentem a volatilidade do mercado no último período do ano.
Dados históricos mostram que o mercado de ações dos EUA apresenta retornos mais modestos nos anos de eleições de meio de mandato, em comparação com outros anos, enquanto uma forte tendência de recuperação costuma surgir no período após as eleições. No entanto, não há garantia de que o desempenho passado se repita no futuro.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — OCTOBER 14, 2026
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🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
September U.S. inflation came in above expectations: CPI rose 0.6% month over month (in line with expectations) and 3.7% year over year (versus expectations of 3.6% and August's 3.4%); core CPI rose 0.3% month over month (versus expectations of 0.2%) and 2.6% year over year (versus expectations of 2.5%). The Fed had raised the upper bound of its policy rate to 4% in September.
Following the data, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.31 and the 2-year yield to 4.92; the 10-year yield touched 5.33 during the session before retreating to around 5.27. On CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike on October 27–28 rose from approximately 22% before the data to around 44%. The probability of two rate hikes by year-end climbed to 44%, up from 13% a week earlier.
U.S. equities remained weak during the session: the S&P 500 was down approximately 0.7%, the Nasdaq 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 1.4%, while the Dow was flat. Bank of America fell approximately 7% following its earnings report; a fine exceeding $1.2 billion is also in focus. Chip stocks remained under selling pressure for a sixth consecutive day.
Oil prices remain supported by the risk premium associated with the war involving Iran: Brent is above $106 and WTI above $95.8. Attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz continue; Reuters counted 10 attacks this week, and the container ship GFS Pride sank. The Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran. Trump is maintaining his decision not to launch attacks during the election period but warned that the pause could “end within a few weeks.”
Gold has declined for three consecutive days, falling below $4,100 as expectations of higher interest rates weigh on the precious metal.
According to BlackRock's third-quarter earnings report, digital asset products attracted $7.9 billion in net inflows (after approximately $2.2 billion in outflows during the first half of the year). Digital asset AUM rose to $79.6 billion, still 23% below its peak of $104 billion.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC tested $84,000 during the early hours of the day before retreating. Following the inflation data, it fell below $83,000 and traded in the $81,500–$81,900 range during the New York session. The daily loss was approximately 2%, with a 24-hour range of $81,500–$84,050. The price remains approximately 35% below its peak above $126,000.
According to CoinGlass data, liquidations exceeded $250 million over 24 hours, with the bulk coming from long positions. More than $208 million in long positions were liquidated in just four hours following the data release. In the options market, the BVIV volatility index rose to 40%, while the largest concentrations of positions were in $60,000, $75,000, and $78,000 puts.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded $175.6 million in inflows on October 13, marking their strongest day of the month following approximately $680 million in outflows the previous week.
Support levels stand at $81,000 (the 50-day moving average and Tuesday's low of $80,970), followed by the $80,000–$80,300 range. A break below this range would bring $75,000 into focus. Resistance stands at $84,000. Wincent expects BTC to trade within the $80,000–$88,000 range in the short term. Meanwhile, 21Shares argues that much of the decline has already been priced in and highlights the possibility of a move above $85,000 once macroeconomic uncertainty subsides. As long as Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations remain elevated, a sustained move above $84,000 appears difficult.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH started the day below $2,500 and fell to approximately $2,440, a decline of around 3%. The $2,500 level has once again become resistance. U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded $24.8 million in net inflows on October 13. In the options market, the largest concentrations of positions were in $2,600 and $3,400 calls, as well as $2,300 puts.
SOL traded at approximately $104.6 (down 2–2.5%), XRP at approximately $1.34 (down 2–2.6%), while HYPE remained relatively calm in the $80–$81 range. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index fell to 55 from 60 a week earlier.
Selling pressure has been evident across DeFi since the start of the day: the CoinDesk DeFi Index declined 1.8%. Starknet fell 4.5%, Optimism 4.2%, Kaia 3.8%, and Celestia 3.7%. Pyth, down 4.5%, and Kite, down 5.3%, were among the notable underperformers.
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📋 KEY CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, signed an agreement to acquire Lithuania-based Saldo Bank. According to the Financial Times, it would become the first crypto company to acquire a bank in Europe. The purchase price was not disclosed, and the transaction is subject to regulatory approval, with completion expected in 2027. Payward plans to offer interest-bearing deposits, loans, and card services to EU customers.
The Central Bank of the Netherlands granted an electronic money institution license to Qivalis, a consortium formed by 37 European banks, including BBVA, BNP Paribas, ING, and DZ Bank. The consortium is moving closer to launching a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin. The token is expected to launch in the coming months once the remaining requirements, including the white paper, are finalized.
Strive purchased 2,822 BTC for $235 million at an average price of $83,266, increasing its total holdings to 35,595 BTC. The purchase was financed with $369.2 million generated through the exercise of PIPE-related warrants.
In the hardware wallet incident involving a security threat to Ledger, MediaMarkt and Saturn suspended Ledger sales after an implant was found in a customer's device. Ledger confirmed that the implant read the recovery phrase during setup and transmitted it via eSIM. Ledger did not confirm blockchain analyst Specter's estimate of losses exceeding $86 million. Ledger asked its resellers in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong to suspend sales.
EasyA announced plans for an initial public offering in 2027 and tokenized shares at a valuation of $1.1 billion.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Starknet (STRK)
October 15 (time not specified by Tokenomist)
127 million STRK, approximately $10 million
Approximately 1.7% of the circulating supply
Recipients: Early contributors
Selling pressure: 🟡
The token had pulled back following its sharp rally in recent weeks and remains weak today. As this is a regular monthly unlock, it does not come as a surprise.
Sei (SEI)
October 15 (time not specified)
Approximately $3.4 million; the token quantity is not listed on the Tokenomist screen
Approximately 0.84% of the supply (Tokenomist does not specify the reference base)
Recipients: Ecosystem reserve
Selling pressure: 🟢
As the allocation goes to the reserve, there is no requirement for the tokens to be sold directly on the market.
Arbitrum (ARB)
October 16 (the time is unclear in available sources)
92.65 million ARB, approximately $16.9 million
Approximately 1.56% of the circulating supply
Recipients: 56.13 million ARB for team members/advisors and 36.52 million ARB for investors (distribution reported by BeInCrypto; Tokenomist verification pending)
Selling pressure: 🟡
The allocation is weighted toward team members and investors. This is a regular monthly unlock.
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🔭 OUTLOOK AND UPCOMING EVENTS
The market is currently pricing in whether the inflationary impact of the energy shock is spreading into core inflation. If tomorrow's U.S. producer price data confirms this thesis, the probability of an October rate hike could rise further, and Treasury yields could move decisively above 5.3. This would increase the risk of BTC consolidating within the $80,000–$84,000 range or slipping below its lower boundary, while ETF inflows are helping defend the bottom of the range.
The key threshold is the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Israeli elections are also scheduled for the same day, followed by the PCE data release on October 29. Continued attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility that Trump's pre-election pause on attacks could end remain the main geopolitical variables fueling inflation expectations in the oil market. Risk appetite is expected to remain closely tied to the Treasury market ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Leverage has been flushed out of the altcoin market, but the decline in the Altcoin Season Index points to selective investor interest. The STRK and ARB token unlocks are among the key developments to watch for potential short-term selling pressure.

BOOM DA IA ELEVA OS PREÇOS DOS COMPUTADORES: INFLAÇÃO DA TECNOLOGIA NOS EUA ATINGE O MAIOR NÍVEL EM 20 ANOS
Grandes investimentos em infraestrutura de IA coincidiram com um aumento notável nos preços da tecnologia para consumidores nos Estados Unidos. Os dados de inflação de setembro revelaram um dos maiores aumentos anuais nos preços de computadores e equipamentos dos últimos vinte anos, colocando em destaque o impacto da demanda por IA sobre os preços.
Aumento anual dos preços dos computadores chega a 9,7%
Em setembro, os preços de computadores, periféricos e assistentes domésticos inteligentes subiram 9,7% em relação ao ano anterior. Esse foi o maior aumento anual registrado desde pelo menos 2006.

U.S. INFLATION IS RUNNING HOTTER THAN HEADLINE FIGURES SUGGEST
The U.S. September CPI data exceeded expectations in both headline and core inflation. Although the rounded figures appeared close to forecasts at first glance, the decimal-level details revealed that price pressures were stronger than the market had anticipated. Following the release, the dollar index began to rise as investors increased their expectations for a Fed rate hike.
UNROUNDED FIGURES CHANGE THE PICTURE
According to BLS data, headline CPI rose 0.649% month over month in September. Market expectations stood at 0.58%. Although the rounded figure was reported as 0.6%, making it appear broadly in line with expectations at first glance, the actual increase was notably higher than forecast.
The biggest surprise came from core inflation, which the Fed monitors closely. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.335% month over month, compared with expectations of 0.21%. This means monthly core inflation exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. In August, monthly core CPI was also reported at 0.3%, against expectations of 0.2%.
ANNUAL INFLATION CLIMBS TO 3.7%
Annual headline inflation rose from 3.4% in August to 3.738%. Annual core inflation also ended its three-month declining streak, increasing from 2.446% to 2.564%.
Indicator: Headline CPI – Monthly
Actual: 0.649%
Expected: 0.58%
Previous: 0.40%
Indicator: Headline CPI – Annual
Actual: 3.738%
Expected: 3.6%
Previous: 3.40%
Indicator: Core CPI – Monthly
Actual: 0.335%
Expected: 0.21%
Previous: 0.29%
Indicator: Core CPI – Annual
Actual: 2.564%
Expected: 2.4%
Previous: 2.446%
FUEL PRESSURES DRIVE THE HEADLINE FIGURE
Energy prices are behind the sharp increase in headline inflation. In the U.S., gasoline prices climbed to $4.41 per gallon in early October, reaching a record high for the month and rising approximately 40% year over year. In the August data, the gasoline index increased 3.9% month over month and 27.4% year over year. However, the fact that core inflation also exceeded expectations indicates that price pressures are not limited to energy and are beginning to spread into services.
ONE OF THE RARE UPSIDE SURPRISES IN THE PAST TWO YEARS
The September reading also stands in sharp contrast to the trend of the past two years. Across the 23 CPI reports released since October 2024, monthly core inflation exceeded expectations only four times and came in below expectations 11 times. With the September report, the number of upside surprises has risen to five, and it is notable that two of them have occurred in consecutive months. The “inflation below expectations” pattern that markets had grown accustomed to for an extended period is now showing signs of reversing.
THE DOLLAR RISES AS RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS STRENGTHEN
Following the release, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to its highest level since November. Short-term U.S. interest rate futures fell, while investors increased their bets on the Fed resuming rate hikes.
Before the release, futures markets had priced in a 17%–20% probability of a rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting and approximately an 85% probability of at least one hike by December. The Fed’s policy rate remains in the 3.75%–4.00% range, and projections from the September meeting pointed to another quarter-point hike by year-end. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also warned last week that persistent inflation could become entrenched in expectations.
The household outlook is also concerning. In the University of Michigan survey, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while five-year expectations increased to 3.5%. This development could lay the groundwork for a tougher Fed stance against the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored.
MARKET IMPLICATIONS
The fact that both headline and core inflation exceeded expectations has brought the possibility of a surprise rate hike at the October meeting back into consideration. A stronger dollar and rising rate expectations could create short-term pressure on cryptocurrency and stock markets. For gold, the focus may shift to the balance between demand for inflation protection and the upward pressure from rising real yields.
Markets will now focus on the Fed’s Beige Book, scheduled for release today at 21:00 TRT, followed by Thursday’s producer price index (PPI) and retail sales data. However, the main focus will remain on the Fed’s October 28 decision and whether the acceleration in core inflation proves persistent.
$BTC

🔐 RELATÓRIO DO MERCADO NO FECHAMENTO — 13 DE OUTUBRO DE 2026

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🌐 PRINCIPAIS NOTÍCIAS DO DIA

O KOSPI da Coreia do Sul caiu mais de 5%, com a Samsung e a SK Hynix entre as maiores baixas. O gatilho foi a notícia de que a fabricante chinesa de chips de memória CXMT havia avançado no desenvolvimento de um design de chip mais eficiente.

Wall Street fechou em movimento misto: o Dow subiu aproximadamente 0,7%, enquanto o S&P 500 caiu 0,1% e o Nasdaq recuou 0,4%. O Dow foi impulsionado por uma alta de 5% da UnitedHealth, após a empresa elevar sua previsão de lucro.

DADOS DE INFLAÇÃO DOS EUA PREVISTOS PARA QUARTA-FEIRA: A DECISÃO DE OUTUBRO DO FED DEPENDE DO IPC ENQUANTO OS MERCADOS SE PREPARAM PARA QUATRO CENÁRIOS
À vista: os dados do IPC dos EUA de setembro serão divulgados na quarta-feira, 14 de outubro, às 15:30 TRT. Os preços recordes da gasolina elevarão a inflação geral, enquanto a atenção se concentrará na inflação subjacente. Os mercados atribuem aproximadamente 20% de probabilidade a um aumento da taxa em outubro; uma leitura forte pode mudar essa perspectiva em um único movimento.
A QUE HORAS OS DADOS SERÃO DIVULGADOS E O QUE É ESPERADO?

🔐 RELATÓRIO DO MERCADO NO ENCERRAMENTO DO DIA — 12 de outubro de 2026
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🌐 PRINCIPAIS NOTÍCIAS DO DIA
Pelo menos 12–13 pessoas morreram em ataques houthis que tiveram como alvo o Aeroporto Internacional de Riade durante o fim de semana. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de US$ 106, atingindo seu nível mais alto em aproximadamente duas semanas, enquanto o WTI era negociado em torno de US$ 93.
Segundo relatos, o Irã estava analisando uma proposta dos EUA para reabrir o Estreito de Ormuz. Dois ataques a petroleiros na costa de Omã também mantiveram elevado o prêmio de risco no mercado.
Wall Street teve um desempenho misto: o Dow subiu aproximadamente 0,4%, enquanto o S&P 500 caiu 0,1% e o Nasdaq recuou 0,3%. Os altos custos de energia e os rendimentos dos títulos do Tesouro pressionaram as ações de tecnologia. O mercado de títulos ficou fechado pelo Dia de Colombo.

📅 WEEKLY MACRO AND RISK CALENDAR | OCTOBER 12–16, 2026
🎯 Main Theme of the Week
With the Fed having raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75–4.00%, the week opens with U.S. September inflation (CPI), followed by retail sales and PPI the very next day. In other words, price pressures and the resilience of demand will be tested within the same 24-hour period. A series of central bank officials' speeches and a conversation featuring the Fed Chair on Friday morning will add to the mix. The rate-hike trajectory is the main focus of the week.
🗓 Day-by-Day Economic Calendar
Monday, October 12
🇺🇸 Columbus Day holiday: U.S. Treasury markets are closed, and the Fed's statistical releases scheduled for today have been moved to Tuesday.
🇨🇦 Canadian Thanksgiving holiday
No major economic data releases are scheduled; liquidity may be thin.
Tuesday, October 13
🇦🇺 RBA September meeting minutes
🇩🇪 Germany CPI (September, final) | 09:00
🇺🇸 Fed Board member speech (AI theme, New Delhi) | 10:45
🇺🇸 Earnings season begins with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo
🇪🇺 ECB President's speech | Wednesday, 05:10
Wednesday, October 14
🇨🇳 China CPI (September) | 04:30
🇬🇧 BoE Governor's speech | 08:30
🇨🇦 BoC Governor's speech | 09:05
🇪🇺 ECB President's speech | 11:30
🇺🇸 CPI (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Fed Beige Book (October) | 21:00
🇺🇸 Morgan Stanley and Bank of America earnings
Thursday, October 15
🇦🇺 Employment data (September) | 03:30
🇨🇭 SNB Chair's speech | 07:30
🇬🇧 GDP (August) | 09:00
🇬🇧 BoE Governor's speech | 10:30 and Friday, 05:00
🇪🇺 Eurozone industrial production (August) | 12:00
🇺🇸 PPI (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Retail sales (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Weekly jobless claims | 15:30
🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Fed Chair's conversation with the IMF Managing Director (Bangkok) | Friday, 06:30
Friday, October 16
🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (September, final) | 12:00
🇺🇸 Import and export prices (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Industrial production and capacity utilization (September) | 16:15
⚠️ Crypto Market Impact and Key Weekly Risk Points
The single biggest risk of the week is U.S. CPI on Wednesday at 15:30. With the rate-hiking cycle still underway, a headline or core inflation reading above expectations could strengthen pricing for further hikes, push the dollar and yields higher, and trigger sharp selling in Bitcoin and altcoins. A softer inflation picture would ease risk appetite concerns; however, PPI and retail sales due the following day could change the direction again, meaning the sustainability of Wednesday's reaction will be tested on Thursday at 15:30.
Thursday at 15:30 brings PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Index in a single window. A combination of strong spending and elevated producer prices would reinforce the Fed's tightening tone. Sudden wicks and liquidation waves are common in crypto futures around these releases, so leveraged positions require extra caution as this window approaches.
Central bank communication will be intense this week. Multiple speeches by the ECB and BoE presidents, appearances by the BoC and SNB governors, and the Fed Chair's Friday morning conversation could deliver new signals about the interest-rate path. Since the Fed Chair's conversation is scheduled for Friday at 06:30 Turkey time, it could affect the opening of the Asian session toward the end of the week. The Beige Book at 21:00 on Wednesday will provide a second layer of commentary following CPI.
The closure of U.S. Treasury markets on Monday means the week begins with thin liquidity. Since crypto trades 24/7, price movements that develop over the weekend could be exaggerated during this period. Bank earnings beginning on Tuesday will also influence risk appetite in equities, with indirect effects on crypto.
Weekly summary: Monday is quiet; Wednesday brings the highest volatility with CPI; a second wave arrives Thursday at 15:30; Friday opens with the Fed Chair's conversation and closes in the afternoon with industrial production data.
$BTC

🔐 RELATÓRIO DE MERCADO — FIM DO DIA — 8 de outubro de 2026
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🌐 PRINCIPAIS NOTÍCIAS DO DIA

O Brent subiu quase 5% acima de US$ 105 após novos ataques a petroleiros no Estreito de Ormuz, enquanto o WTI está em torno de US$ 92,5. Evacuações também começaram em algumas plataformas offshore devido à tempestade tropical no Golfo.

As atas do FOMC de setembro mostraram que mais um aumento de juros é esperado até o fim do ano. As taxas foram elevadas para 3,75–4,00% em setembro; um funcionário do Fed também disse que novos aumentos são prováveis. A próxima reunião será de 27 a 28 de outubro.

🔐 RELATÓRIO DO MERCADO NO FIM DO DIA — 7 de outubro de 2026
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🌐 PRINCIPAIS NOTÍCIAS DO DIA

Novos ataques iranianos no Estreito de Ormuz enfraqueceram as expectativas de que o tráfego marítimo voltaria aos níveis pré-guerra; o petróleo Brent subiu acima de US$ 101.

O rendimento dos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA de 10 anos permanece acima de 5,3%; a alta de 25 pontos-base que levou a taxa básica do Fed à faixa de 3,75%-4,00% em setembro foi a primeira medida de aperto monetário desde 2023.

A ata da reunião de setembro do Fed será divulgada hoje às 21h00 TRT; o mercado busca pistas sobre uma segunda alta dos juros.