"Futures are green, so crypto follows the open." Not today.

Pre-open tapes had Nasdaq futures up around 0.8% and the S&P up about 0.5%, WTI crude knocked back under $100, spot gold reclaiming $3,900 — the full risk-on checklist (Sina Finance and 21jingji premarket tapes). Now check Binance spot heading into the bell: only 12 of 46 tracked pairs are green, barely 26%. BTC prints $77,909, down 0.2%, the best name in today's top five is TRX at just +2.4%, NEAR bleeds -7.7%, and the last hourly close slid from 78,354 back to 77,892.

That is not risk-on reaching crypto. That is equities catching a bid while crypto absorption fails.

The correct read: futures tell you the door is open; breadth tells you who walked in. Crypto follows the open only when the green count expands — not when headlines are green.

My call: waiting, leaning cautious on alts. If green count reaches 25 of 46 and BTC reclaims 78,354 within two hourly closes, I flip bullish. Below that, the opening move is noise wearing a costume.

Data as of today. Not financial advice.

Which is it for you: a lag about to close, or a genuine decoupling? Watch the next hourly close and tell me.

$BTC $TRX $NEAR
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