This week could be the most violent for markets all year.
Elections + mega earnings + jobs data all dropping in 5 days.
Where we're coming from:
$SPX down 1.8%, $NASDAQ down 2.9% Friday — worst day since June. Intel and Reddit nuked 30%.
October was Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025. Big tech lost over $2 TRILLION.
What to watch:
Monday: ISM Manufacturing (high correlation with $BTC) + Apple earnings. Expecting $113B revenue. Apple is 7% of Nasdaq 100 — if it disappoints, everything bleeds.
Tuesday: US midterm elections. Democrats favored for the House. Also JOLTS jobs data + AMD earnings (critical for chip sector).
Wednesday: ADP private payrolls.
Friday: NFP jobs report. Expecting ~55k jobs (Sept was 29k) and 4.2% unemployment.
Why jobs matter: Strong jobs = Fed has ammo to hike in December. Weak jobs = rate hike odds drop, which is bullish for risk assets.
The stat no one talks about: 84% of Novembers during midterm election years close green for $SPX.
Dips before elections are usually entries, not exits.
Elections + mega earnings + jobs data all dropping in 5 days.
Where we're coming from:
$SPX down 1.8%, $NASDAQ down 2.9% Friday — worst day since June. Intel and Reddit nuked 30%.
October was Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025. Big tech lost over $2 TRILLION.
What to watch:
Monday: ISM Manufacturing (high correlation with $BTC) + Apple earnings. Expecting $113B revenue. Apple is 7% of Nasdaq 100 — if it disappoints, everything bleeds.
Tuesday: US midterm elections. Democrats favored for the House. Also JOLTS jobs data + AMD earnings (critical for chip sector).
Wednesday: ADP private payrolls.
Friday: NFP jobs report. Expecting ~55k jobs (Sept was 29k) and 4.2% unemployment.
Why jobs matter: Strong jobs = Fed has ammo to hike in December. Weak jobs = rate hike odds drop, which is bullish for risk assets.
The stat no one talks about: 84% of Novembers during midterm election years close green for $SPX.
Dips before elections are usually entries, not exits.