Stop staring at your 15-minute charts. Yesterday’s bounce from $79,500 back to $81,200 wasn’t random luck.
It was a classic pre-FOMC playbook.
Over the weekend, the dip below $80K wiped out more than $800M in over-leveraged longs, resetting perpetual funding rates back to baseline. Once the liquidation cascade ran out of sellers, buyers stepped in to test the 4H resistance right at $81,200.
But don’t confuse a liquidity grab with an outright trend reversal just yet.
With the 10-Year Treasury yield lingering near 5%, oil prices staying stubborn above $100, and a massive $10.9B options expiry looming this Friday, institutions aren’t in a hurry to chase rallies blindly.
The roadmap is straightforward:
• Break and hold above $81,800: We head straight toward $82,850 and $84K.
• Lose $79,200 on daily close: Expect a sweep down toward the $78,000 max pain zone.
Big money waits for macro clarity; retail buys the middle of the range.
Are you positioned for a post-Fed rally, or do you think $78K is calling first? Let’s talk below.