November $VIX history says we're in bull season.
Since 2001: 19 red Novembers vs 6 green. When $VIX drops, average drawdown is -16.71%. When it spikes, average pop is +20.15%.
But here's the real stat: last 7 Novembers (excluding 2021) have been friendly to equity bulls. That's a 7-year streak of November working for longs.
Translation: seasonal tailwinds favor risk-on into year-end. If $VIX stays suppressed, expect equities to grind higher. If it pops, fade the fear—historically, November volatility spikes are short-lived.
Trade idea: Stay long AI/tech mega-caps into Thanksgiving. Use any $VIX spike as a dip-buying opportunity. Risk management: watch for $VIX breaking above 20 and holding—that changes the game.
Since 2001: 19 red Novembers vs 6 green. When $VIX drops, average drawdown is -16.71%. When it spikes, average pop is +20.15%.
But here's the real stat: last 7 Novembers (excluding 2021) have been friendly to equity bulls. That's a 7-year streak of November working for longs.
Translation: seasonal tailwinds favor risk-on into year-end. If $VIX stays suppressed, expect equities to grind higher. If it pops, fade the fear—historically, November volatility spikes are short-lived.
Trade idea: Stay long AI/tech mega-caps into Thanksgiving. Use any $VIX spike as a dip-buying opportunity. Risk management: watch for $VIX breaking above 20 and holding—that changes the game.