4. Three bearish paths
Path A: shallow pullback. Price tags the EMA cluster around $76–80K, holds, and squeezes back. Painful for late longs, not a regime change. The $80.4K pivot decides this one.
Path B: trend breakdown. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs fail in sequence. Price runs to weekly support near $66K. TradingShot’s analysis ties this kind of setup to a trendline break, with repeated rejection at the 50-week MA and RSI mirroring prior corrections. Their target is $61,500 if the key higher-lows trendline fails.
Path C: capitulation. A macro shock triggers a liquidation cascade. Some analysts have floated lows in the $50,000–$55,000 range for Q4. That is a low-probability tail, but position sizing should account for it.
Path A: shallow pullback. Price tags the EMA cluster around $76–80K, holds, and squeezes back. Painful for late longs, not a regime change. The $80.4K pivot decides this one.
Path B: trend breakdown. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs fail in sequence. Price runs to weekly support near $66K. TradingShot’s analysis ties this kind of setup to a trendline break, with repeated rejection at the 50-week MA and RSI mirroring prior corrections. Their target is $61,500 if the key higher-lows trendline fails.
Path C: capitulation. A macro shock triggers a liquidation cascade. Some analysts have floated lows in the $50,000–$55,000 range for Q4. That is a low-probability tail, but position sizing should account for it.