$VIX sitting at 15.75 and we're on day 55 of it refusing to close above 17.84. That's a long stretch of low volatility.
Here's the setup: only 10 trading days left in October, and every single October since 2018 has seen $VIX spike to at least 21.46. That's 8 years in a row.
So either this October breaks the pattern, or we're about to see a sharp vol expansion in the next two weeks. With $VIX this compressed and historical precedent screaming for a pop, the risk/reward on long vol plays or hedges is looking asymmetric.
If you're long tech or AI names that have ripped, might be time to consider protection. October vol spikes are real.
Here's the setup: only 10 trading days left in October, and every single October since 2018 has seen $VIX spike to at least 21.46. That's 8 years in a row.
So either this October breaks the pattern, or we're about to see a sharp vol expansion in the next two weeks. With $VIX this compressed and historical precedent screaming for a pop, the risk/reward on long vol plays or hedges is looking asymmetric.
If you're long tech or AI names that have ripped, might be time to consider protection. October vol spikes are real.