🚨 MORTGAGE RATES JUST HIT 7.4%. TODAY WE SEE HOW BADLY THE US HOUSING MARKET IS TAKING IT.
US Existing Home Sales (September), out at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 3.96M. Previous: 3.98M.
IF sales > 3.96M → market dumps
IF sales = 3.96M → nothing changes near-term
IF sales < 3.96M → market pumps
Sales already fell two months in a row. The 30 year mortgage rate is 7.40%, the highest since 2023, up from 6.30% a year ago. The median price is $429,100, up only 1.6% from last year, while homes for sale hit 1.62M, the most since 2019.
Why it matters: housing is the biggest purchase most people make, and housing costs are the biggest part of CPI. If sales hold up, the economy is tougher than the rate hikes suggest, and the hike case stays alive. If sales drop, the hikes are starting to bite.
One catch: September sales mostly reflect deals signed in July and August, when rates were near 6.7%. The full hit from 7.4% shows up in October and November data.
CPI comes tomorrow. Today is the warm-up.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
Follow me and turn notifications on.
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#CPIWatch
US Existing Home Sales (September), out at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 3.96M. Previous: 3.98M.
IF sales > 3.96M → market dumps
IF sales = 3.96M → nothing changes near-term
IF sales < 3.96M → market pumps
Sales already fell two months in a row. The 30 year mortgage rate is 7.40%, the highest since 2023, up from 6.30% a year ago. The median price is $429,100, up only 1.6% from last year, while homes for sale hit 1.62M, the most since 2019.
Why it matters: housing is the biggest purchase most people make, and housing costs are the biggest part of CPI. If sales hold up, the economy is tougher than the rate hikes suggest, and the hike case stays alive. If sales drop, the hikes are starting to bite.
One catch: September sales mostly reflect deals signed in July and August, when rates were near 6.7%. The full hit from 7.4% shows up in October and November data.
CPI comes tomorrow. Today is the warm-up.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
Follow me and turn notifications on.
$BTC $ETH
#CPIWatch