Weekend action was muted. DXY held near 102.15–102.20 after Friday’s close around 102.21. Gold (XAUUSD) traded roughly 4,190–4,196, silver near 61.25, and BTCUSD around 83,600–83,750 — all little changed from Friday. US 10-year yield sat at 5.24% (Friday close; bonds closed today). WTI near 91. USDVND around 25,880–25,900. Equities open on Columbus Day; fixed-income markets closed. Thin Asia-to-London liquidity means early moves lack conviction. Thesis: elevated yields and a firm dollar continue to cap hard assets; Wednesday’s CPI decides whether that pressure eases or intensifies.
Levels to open the week
💸DXY :
Last: 102.17
Key support: 101.80–102.00
Key resistance: 102.50
Bias this week: Neutral / firm
💹US10Y :
Last: 5.24%
Key support: 5.20
Key resistance: 5.30–5.35
Bias this week: Sticky high
️🏅XAU :
Last: 4,193
Key support: 4,150–4,180
Key resistance: 4,220–4,250
Bias this week: Neutral / cautious
🥈XAG :
Last: 61.25
Key support: 59.50–60.00
Key resistance: 62.00–63.00
Bias this week: Neutral
🟠BTC :
Last: 83,650
Key support: 82,000
Key resistance: 85,000–86,000
Bias this week: Neutral / range
Daily-close invalidations: DXY sustained below 101.80 or above 102.50; XAU daily close below 4,150 or above 4,250; BTC daily close below 82,000. Cash remains a position.
Calendar (high impact only)
Monday 12: Columbus Day (US federal holiday). Stocks open (NYSE/Nasdaq normal hours); bonds, banks, and Fed closed. No major US data. Thin liquidity.
Tuesday 13: Existing Home Sales (US). Fed speakers (Waller, Barkin, Collins). No primary inflation print.
Wednesday 14: US CPI (Sep) — headline m/m forecast 0.6% (prev 0.4%), y/y 3.6% (prev 3.4%); Core m/m 0.2% (prev 0.3%), y/y 2.5% (prev 2.4%). Beige Book. Highest-impact event of the week.
Thursday 15: US PPI (headline m/m 0.5% fcast), Retail Sales, Jobless Claims. Fed speakers including Warsh.
Friday 16: Industrial Production. No NFP this week.
Notes :
A (base): CPI lands near consensus. DXY stays 101.80–102.50, yields 5.20–5.30%. Hard assets remain range-bound. Gold respects 4,150–4,250; BTC 82k–86k. No strong directional edge until the print clears.
B (bullish hard assets): Soft CPI (core ≤0.2% m/m, headline cooler) forces DXY below 101.80 and yields under 5.20%. Real yields ease, lifting gold above 4,220–4,250 and BTC toward 85k–86k. Requires clear disinflation signal, not just one soft print.
C (bearish hard assets): Hot CPI (headline ≥0.6–0.7%, core sticky) pushes DXY above 102.50 and 10Y toward 5.35%+. Opportunity cost rises; gold risks daily close under 4,150, silver under 60, BTC under 82k. Higher-for-longer pricing returns.
Playbook
Gold: Watch daily closes relative to 4,150/4,250. Firm DXY and 5%+ yields remain the headwind. No edge until CPI. Prefer cash if Asia opens gap and fades.
Bitcoin: Range 82k–86k. ETF flows and risk appetite secondary to yields/dollar this week. Daily close below 82k invalidates near-term recovery attempt.
DXY observer: Holding above 102 keeps pressure on hard assets. A sustained break under 101.80 would be the cleanest signal for path B. Bonds closed today — treat any early FX moves as low-conviction.
Monday-specific rule: NY equities open but bonds closed and Asia thin. Do not treat the first four hours as conviction. Wait for London/NY overlap or the CPI print.
Not financial advice. Confirm live prices before trading.
BRIAN TRUONG
(Reuters/Bloomberg/Kitco,...)
TRADE $BTC - $XAU - $XAG HERE👇
