Análise de Pesquisa do Morgan Stanley: Quilometragem da Google Waymo Abaixo das Expectativas; Integração de Agentes Abre Espaço para Reavaliação

Coincamps · 2026-10-09T08:22:44.000Z

A quilometragem da Waymo no primeiro semestre do ano ficou aproximadamente 3% abaixo das expectativas do Morgan Stanley, com os três principais mercados — São Francisco, Phoenix e Austin — apresentando resultados inferiores às estimativas do modelo. Em seu relatório de 6 de outubro de 2026, o Morgan Stanley observou que essas são interrupções operacionais temporárias e que a lógica de expansão plurianual permanece inalterada. O Morgan Stanley mantém recomendação de exposição acima da média, com preço-alvo de US$ 400, em comparação com o preço atual da ação, de US$ 347,68, o que representa um potencial de valorização de 15%. A tese central do relatório é que a Alphabet precisa de agentes de IA para reavaliar seus múltiplos de valuation, e que a Waymo representa uma vantagem diferenciadora subavaliada baseada em agentes.

Waymo's mileage in the first half of the year fell approximately 3% short of Morgan Stanley's expectations, with all three core markets—San Francisco, Phoenix, and Austin—underperforming model estimates. In its October 6, 2026 report, Morgan Stanley noted that these are temporary operational disruptions, and the multi-year expansion logic remains unchanged.
Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating, with a $400 price target, compared to a current share price of $347.68, representing 15% upside. The report's core thesis is that Alphabet needs AI agents to re-rate its valuation multiples, with Waymo representing an undervalued differentiating agent advantage.
Mileage Below Expectations, but Expansion Logic Unchanged
Cumulative mileage for the first half reached 271.3 million miles, falling short of Morgan Stanley's estimate of 280.3 million miles. San Francisco recorded 82.4 million miles, underperforming estimates by 8.2%. Phoenix hit 92.1 million miles, 4.8% below estimates. Austin reached 21.1 million miles, 5.6% below estimates. Atlanta achieved 8.6 million miles, exceeding estimates by 113.9%.
Morgan Stanley attributes this gap to several temporary disruptions. Weather-related issues caused service suspensions in the first quarter. Highway operations across all markets were suspended starting in late April due to roadway issues, with gradual resumption only occurring by late July. A temporary recall affected over 3,700 vehicles, impacting nearly the entire fleet.
Autonomous driving supply constraints and geofence mapping limitations may also have played a role. Morgan Stanley views these as growing pains within the long-term autonomous driving rollout.
Despite H1 data missing expectations, Morgan Stanley actually raised its 2028 mileage forecast by approximately 2%. Atlanta is ramping up faster, and new cities like Denver, San Diego, and Tampa Bay launched ahead of schedule. Mileage forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were increased by 1% and 2%, respectively, while revenue forecasts were adjusted upward by 2% and 3%. San Francisco and Phoenix mileage forecasts were revised down by 14% and 11%, reflecting growth teething problems in the most mature markets.
Morgan Stanley continues to project Waymo will reach approximately $20 billion in revenue by 2032. CAGR for mileage and revenue from 2025 to 2032 stands at 83% and 89%, respectively.
Fleet Size to Expand to 120,000 Units by 2032
Morgan Stanley updated its bottom-up supply and demand model for Waymo. The fleet is projected to reach approximately 8,000 units by the end of 2027 and 16,000 by the end of 2028, representing upward revisions of 1% and 2%, respectively, from prior estimates. By 2032, the fleet is expected to hit 120,000 units, growing at a CAGR of 79%.
Fleet size expands in sync with mileage and order growth. Morgan Stanley raised Waymo order volume forecasts by 4% and 3% for 2027 and 2028, respectively, projecting 1.119 billion orders by 2032. Even by 2032, Waymo's share of total U.S. vehicle-miles traveled will remain below 0.5%.
Regarding geographic expansion, Waymo plans to enter London, Munich, Tokyo, and Singapore. Morgan Stanley is monitoring weather response capabilities in markets like Denver and Washington this winter, alongside progress in international expansion. These represent key milestones demonstrating global opportunity potential.
Supply constraints in autonomous driving persist. Morgan Stanley notes that supply is one of the factors limiting scale. The pace of fleet expansion, geofence coverage, and weather adaptability collectively determine whether Waymo can convert demand into actual mileage.
Safety Advantage Remains Significant, but Trends Require Monitoring
Waymo's vehicle-miles traveled per incident dropped from approximately 458,000 in Q4 2025 to roughly 430,000 in Q1 2026, and further declined to about 370,000 in Q2. Morgan Stanley highlights that this sequential deterioration warrants attention.
Waymo's overall safety performance remains significantly superior to human driver benchmarks. A rate of 370,000 miles per incident translates to approximately five times the safety level of the average U.S. human driver. Morgan Stanley considers safety the critical threshold for mainstream AV adoption, where Waymo maintains a leading position.
This weakening trend correlates with increasing fleet density and diversification of operating environments. Waymo is expanding into snow-prone environments like Washington and Denver, as well as international markets such as London and Tokyo. Morgan Stanley believes safety performance in these new environments requires continuous monitoring.
Agent Integration Unlocks Re-rating Potential
The report emphasizes that Alphabet needs AI agents to facilitate a multiple re-rating. Waymo represents an undervalued differentiating agent capability.
The report illustrates the potential of agent integration with examples. Gemini Agent could integrate users' calendars and emails into Waymo services to pre-plan trips. Travel segments such as hotel to airport, airport to meetings, meeting to airport, and airport to home could be scheduled in advance by the agent. If a user's email contains a restaurant reservation, Gemini Agent could proactively plan Waymo rides to and from the venue.
Morgan Stanley points out that this does not imply immediate scalability, as supply remains a constraint. The report identifies future Gemini agent features that showcase such integrations, viewing them as pathways for further stock re-rating for Alphabet.
The $400 price target implies approximately 24x P/E, based on average EPS of $15 and $18 for 2027 and 2028, respectively. This embeds a ~1.6x PEG multiple, carrying a premium of roughly 35% versus Alphabet's industry median. Bull case: $460; Bear case: $225. With a current share price of $347.68, it is approaching the base-case target.
Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating and $400 price target. While Waymo's mileage faces near-term headwinds, the mid-term thesis regarding geographic expansion and agent integration remains intact.
Disclaimer
This article is compiled and interpreted by TechFlow Research based on third-party brokerage research reports (Morgan Stanley, October 6, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related assessments cited herein reflect the views of the respective brokerage analysts, represent only their institution's stance, do not constitute the views of TechFlow Research, and should not be construed as investment advice.
Markets involve risk; decisions require independent judgment. This article should not serve as the basis for buying or selling any securities.
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