Been watching this cycle for months. First time in a while I think we might've seen the worst.
Why:
→ ~12mo past peak. Past bears: 11-13mo
→ +42% off July low
→ October closed green 7/9 years
→ Equity inflows on Binance 2x'd to $163M last week. 4th weekly rise in a row
That last one matters. Capital is rotating back in.
But I'm NOT calling the bottom.
54.2% drawdown looks light vs past bears. Volatility-adjusted? Same size. And in 4 of 5 past cases, bounces from this depth broke the low again.
The window is open. It's not confirmed.
$BTC had its 2nd best September since 2017. Same time, money flowed into stocks. $163M equity inflows last week on Binance—44% into $CRCL, $MSTR, $BITM. Tech + financials = 89%.
Crypto, crypto stocks, and tech all moving together.
That changes how I trade. If I'm splitting orders across platforms, I'm tab-switching while the move happens. On Binance, it's one account: crypto, tokenized stocks, TradFi perps. 24/7.
In practice:
→ Add to $BTC + a tech/crypto stock from the same place
→ Use perps to manage risk on a position
→ Act at 2am Sunday if the market moves, not wait til Monday open
I was mainly in $BTC this month, watching $CRCL, $MSTR, $MU when U.S. session closed. Having everything on Binance helped—didn't wait for Monday or jump platforms. 44% of bStocks volume already happens outside U.S. hours. 24/7 access matters when the move actually hits.
Liquidity matters too. When moves come fast, I care about fills. Binance 2% spot order book stayed above $0.24B through the rally.
But again: recovery window is open. Bottom NOT confirmed. 47% bounce doesn't prove anything. 4 of 5 past bounces from this depth broke the low. I'm sizing accordingly.
October is the test.
If recovery keeps expanding across crypto, stocks, perps—I'd rather have one account ready for every move than be switching platforms trying to catch it.
Why:
→ ~12mo past peak. Past bears: 11-13mo
→ +42% off July low
→ October closed green 7/9 years
→ Equity inflows on Binance 2x'd to $163M last week. 4th weekly rise in a row
That last one matters. Capital is rotating back in.
But I'm NOT calling the bottom.
54.2% drawdown looks light vs past bears. Volatility-adjusted? Same size. And in 4 of 5 past cases, bounces from this depth broke the low again.
The window is open. It's not confirmed.
$BTC had its 2nd best September since 2017. Same time, money flowed into stocks. $163M equity inflows last week on Binance—44% into $CRCL, $MSTR, $BITM. Tech + financials = 89%.
Crypto, crypto stocks, and tech all moving together.
That changes how I trade. If I'm splitting orders across platforms, I'm tab-switching while the move happens. On Binance, it's one account: crypto, tokenized stocks, TradFi perps. 24/7.
In practice:
→ Add to $BTC + a tech/crypto stock from the same place
→ Use perps to manage risk on a position
→ Act at 2am Sunday if the market moves, not wait til Monday open
I was mainly in $BTC this month, watching $CRCL, $MSTR, $MU when U.S. session closed. Having everything on Binance helped—didn't wait for Monday or jump platforms. 44% of bStocks volume already happens outside U.S. hours. 24/7 access matters when the move actually hits.
Liquidity matters too. When moves come fast, I care about fills. Binance 2% spot order book stayed above $0.24B through the rally.
But again: recovery window is open. Bottom NOT confirmed. 47% bounce doesn't prove anything. 4 of 5 past bounces from this depth broke the low. I'm sizing accordingly.
October is the test.
If recovery keeps expanding across crypto, stocks, perps—I'd rather have one account ready for every move than be switching platforms trying to catch it.