Exactly note published Oct 6, PANews covering Pandl. $RLC $RAD $RLC
*Grayscale Head Research Zach Pandl "The Stack" today:*
- *Return: BTC ∼225% cumulative 3yr vs Nasdaq ∼109%*
- *Concentration: Exclude best 5 days → 225% → 95% — exclude best 10 days → 27% — exclude best 15 days → -11% loss — Nasdaq still +21% after excluding best 15*
- *Math: <0.5% of trading days (∼5-6 days out of ∼1,095) account for >half of 3yr gain — 0.5% of 1095 = ∼5.47 days*
- *Point: Best days unpredictable, timing market carries huge opportunity cost — for high-return/high-vol asset, staying out = cost — better maintain continuous long exposure if seeking long-term appreciation*
- *Context: Same call that $58k Jun 30 low was bottom — "green light to clients" — long-term structural + cycle + macro all checked*
Classic "missing best days" effect but extreme for BTC vs tech.
*BREAKING 🚨 Grayscale Pandl Oct 6: BTC 225% 3yr but <0.5% days = >50% return 📈 Exclude best 5 days → 95%, 10 days → 27%, 15 days → -11% loss — Nasdaq still +21% ex-15 — <0.5% = ∼5 days out of 1,095 — best days unpredictable → timing = opportunity cost, hold continuous exposure ⚡*
*Grayscale Head Research Zach Pandl "The Stack" today:*
- *Return: BTC ∼225% cumulative 3yr vs Nasdaq ∼109%*
- *Concentration: Exclude best 5 days → 225% → 95% — exclude best 10 days → 27% — exclude best 15 days → -11% loss — Nasdaq still +21% after excluding best 15*
- *Math: <0.5% of trading days (∼5-6 days out of ∼1,095) account for >half of 3yr gain — 0.5% of 1095 = ∼5.47 days*
- *Point: Best days unpredictable, timing market carries huge opportunity cost — for high-return/high-vol asset, staying out = cost — better maintain continuous long exposure if seeking long-term appreciation*
- *Context: Same call that $58k Jun 30 low was bottom — "green light to clients" — long-term structural + cycle + macro all checked*
Classic "missing best days" effect but extreme for BTC vs tech.
*BREAKING 🚨 Grayscale Pandl Oct 6: BTC 225% 3yr but <0.5% days = >50% return 📈 Exclude best 5 days → 95%, 10 days → 27%, 15 days → -11% loss — Nasdaq still +21% ex-15 — <0.5% = ∼5 days out of 1,095 — best days unpredictable → timing = opportunity cost, hold continuous exposure ⚡*
