The market just did a complete 180 on rate expectations.
After a weak September jobs report, odds of an October hike collapsed from 75% to just 17% in a matter of days.
That's not a gradual shift—that's a panic recalibration.
Bond traders are whipsawing. One week they're pricing in more tightening, the next they're backing off hard. This kind of volatility tells you nobody really knows what comes next.
Employment data is driving the Fed narrative more than inflation right now. If the labor market keeps softening, the hiking cycle might actually be over.
But if we get a hot CPI print or another strong payroll number? We'll be right back to pricing in more hikes.
Bottom line: the macro picture is messy, and the bond market is reflecting that confusion in real time.
After a weak September jobs report, odds of an October hike collapsed from 75% to just 17% in a matter of days.
That's not a gradual shift—that's a panic recalibration.
Bond traders are whipsawing. One week they're pricing in more tightening, the next they're backing off hard. This kind of volatility tells you nobody really knows what comes next.
Employment data is driving the Fed narrative more than inflation right now. If the labor market keeps softening, the hiking cycle might actually be over.
But if we get a hot CPI print or another strong payroll number? We'll be right back to pricing in more hikes.
Bottom line: the macro picture is messy, and the bond market is reflecting that confusion in real time.
