PCE came in soft, and the market immediately dialed back rate-hike odds for the next Fed meeting. Classic knee-jerk.
But here's the thing: the threat didn't vanish. It just got pushed out. December now shows 88.2% probability of at least one hike. Delayed, not cancelled.
This is how Fed cycles work. The market celebrates the pause, then reality catches up a month or two later. We've seen this movie before. Don't get lulled by one softer print.
Stay disciplined. Watch December. The macro backdrop hasn't changed — just the timeline.
But here's the thing: the threat didn't vanish. It just got pushed out. December now shows 88.2% probability of at least one hike. Delayed, not cancelled.
This is how Fed cycles work. The market celebrates the pause, then reality catches up a month or two later. We've seen this movie before. Don't get lulled by one softer print.
Stay disciplined. Watch December. The macro backdrop hasn't changed — just the timeline.
