Kalshi hunting $1B at $40B valuation — literally 2x their May raise when they were at $22B
Sequoia + Wellington leading, Tiger Global + Dragoneer circling
Context: They were at $2B in June 2024. Now discussing $40B. That's 20x in ~18 months
Why the hype?
• Weekly notional volume up 10x YoY
• Expanding beyond politics/sports into stocks + financial derivatives
• Direct competition with Polymarket (who raised at $21B last summer)
• CFTC-regulated = tradfi legitimacy play
CEO already floating IPO talks for post-2026
Prediction markets are having their moment. Question is whether $40B holds when the election cycle fades and liquidity dries up
Polymarket at $21B, Kalshi at $40B — someone's getting repriced
Sequoia + Wellington leading, Tiger Global + Dragoneer circling
Context: They were at $2B in June 2024. Now discussing $40B. That's 20x in ~18 months
Why the hype?
• Weekly notional volume up 10x YoY
• Expanding beyond politics/sports into stocks + financial derivatives
• Direct competition with Polymarket (who raised at $21B last summer)
• CFTC-regulated = tradfi legitimacy play
CEO already floating IPO talks for post-2026
Prediction markets are having their moment. Question is whether $40B holds when the election cycle fades and liquidity dries up
Polymarket at $21B, Kalshi at $40B — someone's getting repriced