Perfect Storm Index at 80/100 — extreme risk, down 2 points. Immediate pressure eased slightly: volatility dropped, oil pulled back under $100, geopolitical noise quieter for now.
But the structure underneath? Still fragile. Treasury yields historically elevated, dollar firm, financial conditions tightening, inflation expectations sticky, and geopolitical risk just paused — not gone.
Markets look calmer on the surface. The storm hasn't passed. It's just holding.
Risk stays extreme. Capital preservation and disciplined position management — that's the game right now. PSI measures the environment, not the next candle. Stay patient, respect the setup, and wait for clarity.
But the structure underneath? Still fragile. Treasury yields historically elevated, dollar firm, financial conditions tightening, inflation expectations sticky, and geopolitical risk just paused — not gone.
Markets look calmer on the surface. The storm hasn't passed. It's just holding.
Risk stays extreme. Capital preservation and disciplined position management — that's the game right now. PSI measures the environment, not the next candle. Stay patient, respect the setup, and wait for clarity.
