🚨 Fed October rate hike odds just hit 69.7%. 👀📈
What changed?
🇺🇸 US business activity came in much stronger than expected.
The September Flash Composite PMI jumped to 58.4, its highest level since July 2021, while business input price pressures also increased sharply.
Now CME FedWatch is showing:
🏦 69.7% chance of a 25bp October hike
⏸️ 30.3% chance of no change
For December, markets are pricing a 54.8% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Higher rate expectations can mean:
💵 Stronger dollar
📈 Higher Treasury yields
⚠️ Tighter financial conditions
₿ More volatility for Bitcoin and other risk assets
But remember:
These are market expectations, not a guaranteed Fed decision.
The next inflation and economic data could change the picture quickly.
👀 Will October hike odds keep rising, or could new data push them back down?
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