Hmm.......
There’s something that feels a bit odd here—why should I be in a rush to open a new trade on BTC after such a significant move?
My spot holdings are doing well, and my swing long positions are playing out as expected. So, opening another position simply for the sake of staying in the market doesn't seem very logical to me.
Sometimes, staying flat (out of the market) is a position in itself.
Especially when the price is currently retesting a High Time Frame (HTF) resistance zone. Exercising a little patience here might allow the market to reveal its next clue.
I have two scenarios in mind right now.
The first is bearish.
If we see a rejection from this resistance zone followed by a bearish market structure shift on a lower timeframe, then a short position could be considered. In that case, I’d be eyeing the ~$81.2K region—where the recent range breakout point might get retested.
But honestly, this setup feels less interesting to me than the second one.
Because the second scenario is a bit different.
Look at the momentum with which BTC broke out above the range highs, and how yesterday’s daily close settled well above $81.2K. It’s not just that I’m turning bulish because of the breakout; there was actual spot buying behind the move. That changes things. The key question now is whether this was just a quick move to grab liquidity before dropping back down, or a genuine attempt to shift the market structure.
So, if the price returns to the vicinity of those breakout highs but finds buyers stepping in instead of sellers, that’s when I’ll get interested.
In other words, there’s no need to chase the initial breakout.
Let the retest happen. Let’s see how the price behaves. If there’s strength, then a long position could be considered to capture the continuation toward major resistance. Interestingly, when the market moves this fast, we often feel pressured to "do something right now." But I feel this is the moment to think differently. If you already have profitable positions, deciding not to take a new trade is a valid decision. I don't want to chase BTC right now. If the $81.2K area acts as support and buyers regain control after a retest, the setup will become clear on its own.
On the other hand, if there is a rejection from the HTF (Higher Timeframe) resistance and the lower timeframe structure breaks, a different scenario for a short position will emerge.
Beyond that?
I feel more comfortable simply waiting.
Because a breakout has occurred—sure. But the real answer likely lies in how the market handles the retest following that breakout.
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