The interesting part of XRP right now isn't simply the recovery toward $1.30.
It's what happened after the sharp September selloff.
XRP dropped from around $1.42 toward $1.28 on September 15. Since then, price has stabilized around $1.29–$1.31 instead of immediately breaking lower.
That makes $1.29 the level I'm watching first.
The bigger story is spot resilience vs. derivatives deleveraging.
XRP futures open interest has fallen sharply, from roughly $1.13B to around $871M. That's a significant reduction in leverage.
But here's the important distinction:
Falling OI doesn't automatically mean traders became bearish.
It can also mean the market simply flushed excessive leverage.
Funding has moved much closer to neutral, while positioning is no longer as crowded as it was during the previous move.
For me, that's actually more interesting than a simple bullish or bearish signal.
THE CHART STRUCTURE
$1.29–$1.30 is the immediate battleground.
If buyers can keep defending this zone, the next important reclaim is around $1.34.
Above $1.34, XRP would have a better chance of testing $1.40, which is much stronger resistance from the recent breakdown.
But if $1.29 fails and price cannot reclaim it, the $1.25–$1.26 area becomes important again.
That's where the recent selloff found stronger buying interest.
THE FUNDAMENTAL SIDE
XRPL development hasn't stopped during the price weakness.
The latest XRPL 3.4.0 release adds improvements around the Lending Protocol, including expanded vault functionality and accounting changes.
That's constructive for the network's infrastructure.
But I wouldn't automatically translate network development into XRP price appreciation.
That's the distinction I'm watching:
XRPL adoption can grow without every unit of that growth immediately creating XRP demand.
There is also still a supply consideration. Ripple continues to manage XRP through its escrow system, so future releases remain part of the longer-term supply equation.
BULLISH SCENARIO
XRP holds $1.29–$1.30.
Then price reclaims $1.34 with stronger spot volume.
That would make $1.40 the next major test.
I would want the breakout to come with participation rather than simply a thin liquidity move.
BEARISH SCENARIO
XRP loses $1.29 and fails to reclaim it.
Then $1.25–$1.26 becomes the next important zone.
A clean break below that area would weaken the current recovery structure considerably.
WHAT I LIKE
Derivatives leverage has been flushed.
Price is still holding above the recent selloff low.
XRPL development continues.
Institutional access to XRP has expanded.
WHAT I DON'T LIKE
$1.34–$1.40 remains heavy resistance.
The recovery has not yet produced a convincing higher-high structure.
Lower OI means leverage has reset, but it also means aggressive new positioning hasn't fully returned.
Personally, I wouldn't chase XRP around $1.30.
I want to see what happens at the edges.
$1.34 reclaimed with volume = recovery becomes more credible.
$1.29 lost = downside structure comes back into focus.
Right now, XRP is rebuilding after a leverage flush.
The market still needs to prove that this is more than just a bounce.
Can XRP turn $1.30 from a stabilization zone into a real launchpad
