If everything is priced in, why does the price change at all?
This is the paradox nobody talks about. Markets price in expectations, not reality. When reality hits different than consensus, that's when you see the move.
The real alpha: most retail thinks "priced in" means nothing will happen. Wrong. It means the EXPECTED outcome won't move price. The unexpected will.
That's why you fade consensus on major events. Everyone positioned for rate cuts? Price already there. Surprise hawkish pivot? That's your 10% swing in 4 hours.
Price changes because new information constantly challenges old assumptions. Nothing stays priced in forever.
This is the paradox nobody talks about. Markets price in expectations, not reality. When reality hits different than consensus, that's when you see the move.
The real alpha: most retail thinks "priced in" means nothing will happen. Wrong. It means the EXPECTED outcome won't move price. The unexpected will.
That's why you fade consensus on major events. Everyone positioned for rate cuts? Price already there. Surprise hawkish pivot? That's your 10% swing in 4 hours.
Price changes because new information constantly challenges old assumptions. Nothing stays priced in forever.