Tom on CNBC calling for S&P 8,200 by year end. Mag-7 and AI trade supposedly coming back to life.

Look, the AI capital flow is real. No one's denying that. But "one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime" is a hell of a call when we've got rate uncertainty, supply shocks, and geopolitical noise still hanging around.

Markets do climb walls of worry. That's true. But they also love to rug people who get too comfortable with the narrative.

I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm saying don't let hopium override risk management. If AI holds and macro cooperates, sure, we could rip. But if one of those pillars cracks, it won't be pretty.

Watch the data. Don't just ride the hype.