September 7–11, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TRT)
🎯 Main Theme of the Week
Following the digestion of Jackson Hole and the August NFP report, the market is looking for a new reference point. ADP added only 38,000 jobs in August, below expectations of 47,000 and slower than July’s revised 46,000. ISM Manufacturing fell from 55.6 to 54.6 but remained in expansion territory, while ISM Services rose from 54.1 to 55.4. Against this mixed backdrop, the week will be shaped by US inflation data concentrated on Thursday-Friday and the ECB decision on the same day. US and Canadian markets are closed Monday for Labor Day — effectively compressing the week into four trading days.
📅 Economic Calendar
Monday – September 7
🇺🇸🇨🇦 US and Canadian markets closed (Labor Day) Low trading volume and thin liquidity are expected; Asian and European sessions will take center stage.
Thursday – September 10
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — PPI, August 2026 Producer prices, released one day before Friday’s CPI data, will provide the first signal on the direction of pipeline inflation.
🇪🇺 Afternoon — ECB Rate Decision + President Lagarde’s Press Conference Germany’s August inflation data will also be released the same day; the ECB decision will be interpreted alongside this figure.
🇺🇸 17:00 TRT — Existing Home Sales, August 2026
Friday – September 11
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — CPI, August 2026 The most critical data point of the week — and perhaps the most important release on the road to the September 16 FOMC meeting. Headline inflation, which stood at 3.4% in July, is expected to accelerate in August; the impact of the energy shock continues to create a complex equation. The direction of core CPI from July’s 2.5% level will directly constrain the FOMC’s options.
🇺🇸 17:00 TRT — Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, September 2026
⚡ Crypto & Market Risks
PPI + ECB on the same day (Thursday): A hotter-than-expected PPI reading would push Friday’s CPI expectations higher, prompting the market to adopt a more cautious positioning ahead of the FOMC. A hawkish or dovish ECB tone could feed into DXY through EUR/USD, indirectly influencing crypto pricing.
CPI (Friday 15:30): Hot reading (accelerating headline + sticky core) → the possibility of a hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting returns to the table, the dollar strengthens, and crypto comes under leverage pressure. Cool reading → expectations of a hold strengthen, allowing the risk-on environment to continue through the FOMC. Because CPI arrives only five days before the FOMC this week, the pricing impact generated by the data is likely to remain largely in place through the weekend — leaving a narrow window for position adjustments.
Short week + low liquidity: With Monday’s holiday compressing the week into four trading days, the PPI-ECB-CPI sequence occurring back-to-back carries a higher-than-normal risk of intraday volatility.