C$27.6 billion — the scale of Canada counter-tariffs targeting 700 U.S. goods, effective September 8. The catalyst is bilateral collapse: USTR Greer confirmed no talks are planned. The direct effect is a 50% U.S. tariff wall on select Canadian imports, with a doubling threat on autos and steel by January.
The second-order consequence is energy. Carney explicitly raised the option of halting exports: Canada supplies 99% of U.S. natural gas imports, 85% of electricity imports, and 60% of crude oil imports. If even 10% of that flow is restricted, U.S. gas prices spike independently of the Strait of Hormuz situation.
What would prove this view wrong is a bilateral summit before September 8 that reverses both tariff schedules. Variable to monitor: whether Canada energy export volumes to the U.S. drop below typical range before October. 🔔
The second-order consequence is energy. Carney explicitly raised the option of halting exports: Canada supplies 99% of U.S. natural gas imports, 85% of electricity imports, and 60% of crude oil imports. If even 10% of that flow is restricted, U.S. gas prices spike independently of the Strait of Hormuz situation.
What would prove this view wrong is a bilateral summit before September 8 that reverses both tariff schedules. Variable to monitor: whether Canada energy export volumes to the U.S. drop below typical range before October. 🔔
