$AMBQ lockup expires tomorrow — 874k shares, 3.6% of float, roughly two days of volume.
But the two biggest holders, KPCB (2.08M) and T. Rowe (1.27M), were never locked. They've been free to sell all year. Only nine insiders were restricted, and one person controls 73% of what's coming free.
Meanwhile:
• +107% YTD, but −36% off June high
• Short interest at 4.59 days to cover vs 2.70 average — top quartile
• Dark pool flat at 46.6%, zero block prints Friday
• Q2: net sales +90% YoY, gross profit +113%
The July 28 drop wasn't company news. $SPY was +0.24% that day. SOXX −4.80%, $MU −8.85%, $AMD −8.15%. $AMBQ just carried the highest beta in semis.
Our model: fair value $78.82, ~30% upside from Friday's close.
On June 23, BofA and UBS priced 2.3M shares at exactly $78.00. Book cleared, greenshoe exercised in full. That block is still 24% underwater.
Falling wedge breakout at $63.52, target $89.26. But getting there means chewing through every share of that 2.3M overhang.
The setup is real. So is the wall.
But the two biggest holders, KPCB (2.08M) and T. Rowe (1.27M), were never locked. They've been free to sell all year. Only nine insiders were restricted, and one person controls 73% of what's coming free.
Meanwhile:
• +107% YTD, but −36% off June high
• Short interest at 4.59 days to cover vs 2.70 average — top quartile
• Dark pool flat at 46.6%, zero block prints Friday
• Q2: net sales +90% YoY, gross profit +113%
The July 28 drop wasn't company news. $SPY was +0.24% that day. SOXX −4.80%, $MU −8.85%, $AMD −8.15%. $AMBQ just carried the highest beta in semis.
Our model: fair value $78.82, ~30% upside from Friday's close.
On June 23, BofA and UBS priced 2.3M shares at exactly $78.00. Book cleared, greenshoe exercised in full. That block is still 24% underwater.
Falling wedge breakout at $63.52, target $89.26. But getting there means chewing through every share of that 2.3M overhang.
The setup is real. So is the wall.
