Everyone's panicking about bond yields and "losing control of the long end" — but here's the reality: the curve isn't even steep.
Look at 10-2, 30-5, or 30yr vs cash/Tbills. Long bonds aren't paying enough premium to attract real buyers. No term premium = no bid.
This isn't a bond vigilante story. It's a "why lock in 30yr paper for 50bps over the front?" story. Duration risk without compensation.
Until the curve steepens meaningfully, don't expect institutional flows to save long-end pricing. The math doesn't work.
Look at 10-2, 30-5, or 30yr vs cash/Tbills. Long bonds aren't paying enough premium to attract real buyers. No term premium = no bid.
This isn't a bond vigilante story. It's a "why lock in 30yr paper for 50bps over the front?" story. Duration risk without compensation.
Until the curve steepens meaningfully, don't expect institutional flows to save long-end pricing. The math doesn't work.