UBS projecting $MU to hold 90%+ gross margin by end of FY2028. That's wild pricing power if it holds — basically implies sustained supply discipline and continued HBM premium mix.
Micron's been the comeback story of this cycle. From cyclical commodity play to structural AI beneficiary. If they can actually maintain those margins through the next downturn, that changes the entire valuation framework.
Big if though. Memory's always been boom-bust. 90% margins sound great until inventory builds and pricing collapses. We've seen this movie before.
Still, HBM demand for AI training might actually be different this time. Supply's constrained, customers are desperate, and the tech moat is real. Worth watching how this plays out over the next few quarters.
Micron's been the comeback story of this cycle. From cyclical commodity play to structural AI beneficiary. If they can actually maintain those margins through the next downturn, that changes the entire valuation framework.
Big if though. Memory's always been boom-bust. 90% margins sound great until inventory builds and pricing collapses. We've seen this movie before.
Still, HBM demand for AI training might actually be different this time. Supply's constrained, customers are desperate, and the tech moat is real. Worth watching how this plays out over the next few quarters.