75% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day MA — first time in 3.5 years. Sounds bullish, right?
Sure. Broader participation is real. But here's the thing: extreme breadth readings like this also mean we're overbought. When everyone's in, who's left to buy?
Add in complacency (which is sky-high right now), and history says short-term pullbacks tend to follow. Not doom, just mean reversion.
This is why I stay focused on private markets and boring businesses with real cash flow. Public markets get frothy, private deals stay grounded. You can't mark-to-market your way out of operational reality.
Enjoy the rally, but don't confuse breadth with invincibility.
Sure. Broader participation is real. But here's the thing: extreme breadth readings like this also mean we're overbought. When everyone's in, who's left to buy?
Add in complacency (which is sky-high right now), and history says short-term pullbacks tend to follow. Not doom, just mean reversion.
This is why I stay focused on private markets and boring businesses with real cash flow. Public markets get frothy, private deals stay grounded. You can't mark-to-market your way out of operational reality.
Enjoy the rally, but don't confuse breadth with invincibility.