August 17–21, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar
🎯 Main Theme of the Week
July CPI softened to 3.4%, while core CPI fell to a five-month low of 2.5% — both came exactly in line with expectations. PPI remained unchanged, with the expected 0.2% increase failing to materialize. This combination of softer data, together with July’s -23K NFP shock, pushed expectations for a September hold to 64%. However, while the data has calmed, the calendar has not: this week brings both the July FOMC minutes and a global central-bank PMI package — the market will get its first look at what was actually discussed at the meeting that passed with three dissenting votes under Warsh. August NFP and CPI have not yet been released; this week is an interim breather on the road to the September FOMC, but the minutes could contain surprises.
📅 Economic Calendar
Tuesday – August 18
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — Housing Starts & Building Permits, July 2026
🇺🇸 16:15 TRT — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, July 2026
The July picture for the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector and manufacturing side. Following the weak employment picture, these two indicators will test the breadth of growth — is only the labor market weakening, or is the broader economy slowing as well?
🇬🇧 09:00 TRT — UK CPI, July 2026
The trajectory of UK inflation; a parallel data point showing whether a global disinflationary picture is emerging alongside the Fed’s easing signals.
Wednesday – August 19
🇺🇸 21:00 TRT — FOMC Minutes (July 28–29 Meeting)
The centerpiece of the week. At that meeting, three members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while Warsh defended the framework that “we are looking at the direction of the data, not a single data point.” The minutes will show the depth of this internal debate: How strongly were the dissenting members’ arguments presented? Since the members were discussing this at the meeting before the July NFP came in at -23K, the minutes reflect an internal Fed debate that was unaware of the weak employment picture we have today — this lag factor will shape how the market interprets the minutes.
Friday – August 21
🌍 Afternoon — Global S&P Flash PMI Package (Germany, Eurozone, UK, U.S.)
🇺🇸 16:45 TRT — U.S. S&P Global Flash PMI (Manufacturing + Services), August
The first real-time activity data for August. Following July’s -23K NFP shock, this will provide the first fresh signal on businesses’ hiring and growth plans. The prices sub-indices will show whether the zero growth in PPI is continuing.
⚡ Crypto & Market Risks
FOMC Minutes (Wednesday 21:00):
Strong representation of the dissenting members’ arguments in the minutes → the market remembers that a September hike remains on the table, and the dollar could recover. If the minutes show Warsh’s “we are waiting for the data” framework as dominant → the current 64% hold pricing is reinforced, maintaining a neutral-to-positive backdrop for risk assets. The critical point: The minutes are a backward-looking snapshot — they do not include the July NFP shock, meaning the market may view them as “old news” and largely look past them.
Flash PMI (Friday 16:45):
A signal that hiring intentions are weakening → strengthens the interpretation that the NFP shock was not a one-month anomaly but part of a genuine slowdown; September hold expectations become even more entrenched, supportive for crypto. A strong PMI, however, would support the thesis that -23K was statistical noise and could make the market cautious again.
Calm but fragile week:
August NFP and CPI have not yet been released — this week is an interim window. Combined with low summer liquidity, an unexpected sentence in the FOMC minutes or Flash PMIs could trigger a disproportionately large market reaction. Jackson Hole (August 27–29) is the next major event; this is a positioning week.