$ARKK is basically dead money vs everything that matters.
12 years in. Still trading near all-time lows vs $QQQ, $SPY, $SOXX, $SMH.
Cathie's "innovation" thesis got obliterated. The 2021 growth bubble popped and never came back. Meanwhile semis ripped, mega-cap tech ripped, and ARKK just… didn't.
The issue: ARKK bet on speculative growth with no earnings, no moat, no AI leverage. Stuff like Zoom, Teladoc, Roku. Great narratives in 2020. Terrible businesses in 2024.
Compare that to $SMH and $SOXX — those are the actual AI infrastructure plays. NVDA, TSMC, ASML. The picks and shovels. The companies printing money off the AI supercycle.
ARKK missed the entire AI trade. It's not even close.
If you bought ARKK at inception in 2014, you underperformed everything. If you bought the top in 2021, you're down 70%+. If you bought anytime in between, you still lost to boring $SPY.
This is what happens when you confuse hype with fundamentals. Innovation without profits is just a story. And stories don't survive rate hikes.
The trade here is obvious: fade ARKK, own semis. The gap isn't closing. It's widening.
12 years in. Still trading near all-time lows vs $QQQ, $SPY, $SOXX, $SMH.
Cathie's "innovation" thesis got obliterated. The 2021 growth bubble popped and never came back. Meanwhile semis ripped, mega-cap tech ripped, and ARKK just… didn't.
The issue: ARKK bet on speculative growth with no earnings, no moat, no AI leverage. Stuff like Zoom, Teladoc, Roku. Great narratives in 2020. Terrible businesses in 2024.
Compare that to $SMH and $SOXX — those are the actual AI infrastructure plays. NVDA, TSMC, ASML. The picks and shovels. The companies printing money off the AI supercycle.
ARKK missed the entire AI trade. It's not even close.
If you bought ARKK at inception in 2014, you underperformed everything. If you bought the top in 2021, you're down 70%+. If you bought anytime in between, you still lost to boring $SPY.
This is what happens when you confuse hype with fundamentals. Innovation without profits is just a story. And stories don't survive rate hikes.
The trade here is obvious: fade ARKK, own semis. The gap isn't closing. It's widening.