Is Bitcoin’s bear market getting closer to its end?
It has been almost 10 months since Bitcoin entered a downtrend following the October move.
If we look purely at historical time frames, we could be getting closer to the later stages of the cycle. That doesn't mean a reversal is guaranteed, but it does mean the market is entering a period where a major shift could happen at any time.
However, there’s another side to the argument.
Bitcoin's previous bear markets experienced significantly deeper drawdowns.
In 2018, BTC fell roughly 84% from its peak.
In 2022, the decline was around 77%.
By comparison, the current cycle has so far seen a much smaller drawdown of approximately 50–53%.
That raises an important question:
Could Bitcoin still have another major leg down before the bear market is truly over?
It’s possible.
But there are also signs that the market may be further along in the cycle than it appears.
A lot of the FUD that previously caused major selling has lost some of its impact. Many weaker altcoins have already been wiped out, leverage has been reduced, and market participants appear much more cautious than they were during the euphoric phase.
Historical cycles also give us another reference point.
The 2018 and 2022 bear markets both took roughly a year or more from their major peaks to their eventual bottoms.
But there’s an important limitation:
Bitcoin doesn't have to repeat the same timeline every cycle.
Market structure, liquidity, institutional participation, regulation and investor behavior are different today.
So I wouldn't use historical cycle timing as a prediction.
I'd use it as a framework.
Whether you're trading or holding, understanding where we might be in the cycle can help you think about risk, position sizing and strategy.
Because the strategy that works in a bull market isn't necessarily the strategy that works in a bear market.
Don't try to predict the exact bottom. Understand the environment you're operating in.
It has been almost 10 months since Bitcoin entered a downtrend following the October move.
If we look purely at historical time frames, we could be getting closer to the later stages of the cycle. That doesn't mean a reversal is guaranteed, but it does mean the market is entering a period where a major shift could happen at any time.
However, there’s another side to the argument.
Bitcoin's previous bear markets experienced significantly deeper drawdowns.
In 2018, BTC fell roughly 84% from its peak.
In 2022, the decline was around 77%.
By comparison, the current cycle has so far seen a much smaller drawdown of approximately 50–53%.
That raises an important question:
Could Bitcoin still have another major leg down before the bear market is truly over?
It’s possible.
But there are also signs that the market may be further along in the cycle than it appears.
A lot of the FUD that previously caused major selling has lost some of its impact. Many weaker altcoins have already been wiped out, leverage has been reduced, and market participants appear much more cautious than they were during the euphoric phase.
Historical cycles also give us another reference point.
The 2018 and 2022 bear markets both took roughly a year or more from their major peaks to their eventual bottoms.
But there’s an important limitation:
Bitcoin doesn't have to repeat the same timeline every cycle.
Market structure, liquidity, institutional participation, regulation and investor behavior are different today.
So I wouldn't use historical cycle timing as a prediction.
I'd use it as a framework.
Whether you're trading or holding, understanding where we might be in the cycle can help you think about risk, position sizing and strategy.
Because the strategy that works in a bull market isn't necessarily the strategy that works in a bear market.
Don't try to predict the exact bottom. Understand the environment you're operating in.