everyone keeps sayin "clarity act is comin, regulation is finally here" but the senate jus delayed the vote again right before recess n the odds tell a way different story
the claim this bill has strong momentum, house already passed it back in july 2025, senate banking committee advanced it in may, its jus a matter of time
the reality prediction markets had this at over 80% chance of passin back in february, it crashed to a record low near 24% in mid july, n now its just kinda driftin around 35%, thats not momentum thats the market losin confidence in real time
n the reason matters too, its not even bein blocked on the merits, senate leadership is jus prioritizin nominations n a russia sanctions bill first, so the "one crypto specific catalyst" ppl were waitin on for institutional buyin is basically parked with no clear date
so the real question isnt "will clarity act pass eventually" its "how long can the market keep pricin in regulatory clarity thats perpetually six months away"
if this misses the recess window again does the market finally stop pricin it in or keep hopin
$BTC
the claim this bill has strong momentum, house already passed it back in july 2025, senate banking committee advanced it in may, its jus a matter of time
the reality prediction markets had this at over 80% chance of passin back in february, it crashed to a record low near 24% in mid july, n now its just kinda driftin around 35%, thats not momentum thats the market losin confidence in real time
n the reason matters too, its not even bein blocked on the merits, senate leadership is jus prioritizin nominations n a russia sanctions bill first, so the "one crypto specific catalyst" ppl were waitin on for institutional buyin is basically parked with no clear date
so the real question isnt "will clarity act pass eventually" its "how long can the market keep pricin in regulatory clarity thats perpetually six months away"
if this misses the recess window again does the market finally stop pricin it in or keep hopin
$BTC